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Journals / Maliye Dergisi / 2019 / Sayı: 177

The Effects of Public Debt on Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Turkey

Kamu Borcunun Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye İçin Eşbütünleşme Analizi

TANER TURAN
Pages
1–27
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Finally, we conlcude that investment and credits boost the economic growth.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This paper examines the effects of public debt on economic growth in Turkey by using ARDL and NARDL approaches.
📊
Key Findings & Data:We find that public total debt does not have a significant effect on economic growth in the long run while it has a negative impact in the short run.
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Conclusion & Impact:Finally, we conlcude that investment and credits boost the economic growth.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of public debt on economic growth in Turkey by using ARDL and NARDL approaches. We find that public total debt does not have a significant effect on economic growth in the long run while it has a negative impact in the short run. It seems that public external debt has a significant and positive (negative) effect on economic growth rate in the long (short) run. When we use public domestic debt, quadratic specification for public total debt, and NARDL model, we don’t find a cointegration among relevant variables. Finally, we conlcude that investment and credits boost the economic growth.

Özet

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de kamu borcunun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri ARDL ve NARDL yaklaşımları kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar kamu toplam borcunun uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi etkilemediğini, kısa dönemde ise negatif etkilediğini göstermektedir. Kamu dış borcunun uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu, kısa dönemde ise olumsuz biçimde etkilediği sonucuna varılmaktadır. Kamu iç borcunun açıklayıcı değişken olarak kullanıldığı model ile toplam kamu borcunun yer aldığı kuadratik model ve NARDL tahmin sonuçları ilgili değişkenler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olmadığına işaret etmektedir. Yatırımlar ve finansal sektör tarafından sağlanan krediler ise büyümeyi desteklemektedir.

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Cite This Article

TURAN, T. (2019). The Effects of Public Debt on Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis for Turkey. Maliye Dergisi, Sayı: 177, 1–27. https://ajindex.com/articles/78837

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