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Journals / Maliye Dergisi / 2019 / Sayı: 176

The Sustainability of Budget Deficit in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Relationship

Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığının Sürdürülebilirliği: Saklı Eşbütünleşme İlişkisi

Ömer AKKUŞ
ATAKAN DURMAZ
Pages
52–71
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Results indicate that there is a cointegration relationship between budget revenues and budget expenditures and the budget deficit is sustainable even in weak form in Turkey.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:This study, starting from the point of intertemporal budget constraint approach, examines the sustainability of budget deficit in Turkey for 1930- 2016 period by taking Quintos (1995)’s strength and weakness conditions for the sustainability of the budget deficit and Hakkio and Rush’s (1991) approach to how to ensure the sustainability of the budget deficit.
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Key Findings & Data:In this study, the cointegration relationship between the budget revenues and expenditures is tried to be revealed through the Johansen Cointegration method and the Hidden Cointegration Method developed by Hatemi-J and Irandoust (2012) based on the prior method.
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Conclusion & Impact:Results indicate that there is a cointegration relationship between budget revenues and budget expenditures and the budget deficit is sustainable even in weak form in Turkey.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2016 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

This study, starting from the point of intertemporal budget constraint approach, examines the sustainability of budget deficit in Turkey for 1930- 2016 period by taking Quintos (1995)’s strength and weakness conditions for the sustainability of the budget deficit and Hakkio and Rush’s (1991) approach to how to ensure the sustainability of the budget deficit. In this study, the cointegration relationship between the budget revenues and expenditures is tried to be revealed through the Johansen Cointegration method and the Hidden Cointegration Method developed by Hatemi-J and Irandoust (2012) based on the prior method. Cointegration coefficient is estimated by FMOLS, DOLS, CCR. Results indicate that there is a cointegration relationship between budget revenues and budget expenditures and the budget deficit is sustainable even in weak form in Turkey.

Özet

Bu çalışma zamanlararası bütçe kısıtı yaklaşımından yola çıkarak Hakkio ve Rush’ın (1991) bütçe açığının sürdürülebilirliğinin nasıl gerçekleşebileceğini ve Quintos’ın (1995) bütçe açığının sürdürülebilmesinin güçlü ve zayıf koşulları dikkate alınarak 1930-2016 döneminde Türkiye’deki bütçe açığının sürdürülebilirliğini incelemektedir. Çalışmada bütçe gelirleri ve harcamaları arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Johansen eşbütünleşme yöntemi ve bu yönteme dayalı olarak Hatemi-J ve Irandoust (2012) tarafından geliştirilen saklı eşbütünleşme yöntemi aracılığıyla incelenmiştir. Eşbütünleşme katsayısı FMOLS, DOLS, CCR ile tahmin edilmektedir. Araştırma sonuçları bütçe gelirleri ve harcamaları arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu ve Türkiye’de bütçe açığının zayıf formda da olsa sürdürülebilir olduğunu göstermektedir.

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Cite This Article

AKKUŞ, Ö., DURMAZ, A. (2019). The Sustainability of Budget Deficit in Turkey: Hidden Cointegration Relationship. Maliye Dergisi, Sayı: 176, 52–71. https://ajindex.com/articles/78824

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