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Journals / Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi / 2020 / Cilt: 18 - Sayı: 2

The Investigation of Inflation and Phillips Curve for Turkey with Unobserved Component Model

Türkiye için Enflasyonun ve Phillips Eğrisinin Gözlenemeyen Bileşen Modelleri ile İncelenmesi

Eda YALÇIN KAYACAN
Şenay ÜÇDOĞRUK BİRECİKLİ
Pages
64–72
Publication Date
2020-06-24
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings showed that the Phillips curve isn’t valid for Turkey.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Unobserved component models; which are directly formulated in terms of the unobservable components that represent important characteristics of series such as trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Unobserved variables such as the output gap and the natural unemployment rate required for the Phillips Curve estimation were also obtained based on the method in question.
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Conclusion & Impact:The findings showed that the Phillips curve isn’t valid for Turkey.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2016 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Gözlenemeyen Bileşen Modelleri · Durum Uzay Modelleri · Kalman Filtresi

Abstract

Unobserved component models; which are directly formulated in terms of the unobservable components that represent important characteristics of series such as trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components. The so-called models provide us to interpret in terms of each components, to obtain unobserved variables and to predict by preserving the originality of the series.In this study, inflation, which is one of the basic macroeconomic variables, was examined by using the patterns of unobserved component models and statistical theories based on the so-called models. Then, Phillips Curve was predicted. Unobserved variables such as the output gap and the natural unemployment rate required for the Phillips Curve estimation were also obtained based on the method in question. In the analysis, the data of GDP, unemployment and inflation for Turkey were used the period for 1998: Q1- 2016: Q2. The findings showed that the Phillips curve isn’t valid for Turkey.

Özet

Gözlenemeyen bileşen modelleri; trend, konjonktürel, mevsimsel ve düzensiz bileşenler gibi serilerin önemli özelliklerini temsil eden gözlenemeyen bileşenleri açısından doğrudan formülize edilen modellerdir. Söz konusu modeller; her bir bileşene ayrı ayrı ekonomik yorum getirmeyi, gözlenemeyen değişkenleri elde etmeyi ve serilerin orijinalliklerini koruyarak tahminleme yapmayı mümkün kılmaktadır. Çalışmada temel makroekonomik değişkenlerden biri olan enflasyon bileşenleri açısından; gözlenemeyen bileşen model kalıpları ve dayandığı istatistiksel teoriler kullanılarak incelenmiş ve Phillips Eğrisi tahminlenmesi yapılmıştır. Phillips Eğrisi tahmini için gerekli olan çıktı açığı ve doğal işsizlik oranı gibi gözlenemeyen değişkenler de söz konusu yönteme dayanarak elde edilmiştir. Analizlerde, 1998:Q1-2016:Q2 dönemi için Türkiye GSYH, işsizlik ve enflasyon verileri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye için Phillips eğrisinin geçerli olmadığını göstermiştir.

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Cite This Article

KAYACAN, E. Y., BİRECİKLİ, Ş. Ü. (2020). The Investigation of Inflation and Phillips Curve for Turkey with Unobserved Component Model. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 18 - Sayı: 2, 64–72. https://ajindex.com/articles/69468

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