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Journals / Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2010 / Cilt: 28 - Sayı: 1

Starma modeling and estimation of province-based inflation in Turkey

Türkiye'de iller temelinde enflasyonun UZABHO modellemesi ve tahmini

K. Batu TUNAY
Pages
1–36
Publication Date
2022-10-18
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

As a result of these, success of executed policies will undoubtedly increase.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this study, Turkey's province-based inflation is estimated by space-time autoregressive moving average (STARMA) models.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Study also aims to introduce STARMA models as efficient econometrical estimation tools for the analysis of geographical based economic variables.
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Conclusion & Impact:As a result of these, success of executed policies will undoubtedly increase.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

In this study, Turkey's province-based inflation is estimated by space-time autoregressive moving average (STARMA) models. Study also aims to introduce STARMA models as efficient econometrical estimation tools for the analysis of geographical based economic variables. Findings obtained shows us that statistically significance level and explanatory power of model are both expressively high. Consequently, this model can be used for forecasting of province-based inflation. Thus, political authorities can easily forecast inflation and thereby take necessary measures to cope with both province-based and country-wide inflation. As a result of these, success of executed policies will undoubtedly increase.

Özet

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de farklı iller temelinde enflasyonun uzay-zaman ardışık bağlanım hareketli ortalama (UZABHO) modelleriyle tahmini yapılmaktadır. Coğrafi temelli ekonomik değişkenlerin analiz edilmesinde etkin bir ekonometrik tahmin aracı olarak UZABHO modellerinin tanıtılması da amaçlanmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar gerek istatistik anlamlılık gerekse açıklayıcı güçleri açısından son derece başarılıdır. Sonuçların başarısına bakılarak, söz konusu modelin bölgesel enflasyonun öngörüsünün yapılmasında başarıyla kullanılabileceği rahatlıkla söylenebilir. Böylelikle, politika yapanlar ülke genelinde olduğu gibi bölgesel düzeyde de enflasyonu öngörebilecek, bölgeye özel tedbirler alınabilecek ve uygulanacak politikaların başarı şansı da kuşkusuz artacaktır.

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Cite This Article

TUNAY, K. B. (2022). Starma modeling and estimation of province-based inflation in Turkey. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 28 - Sayı: 1, 1–36. https://ajindex.com/articles/533148

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