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Journals / Ekoloji / 2008 / Cilt: 17 - Sayı: 67

Porsuk Barajı'ndaki su miktarının istatistiksel olarak modellenmesi

Statistical modelling of water quantity in the Porsuk Dam

Özer ÖZAYDIN
Fatih CEMREK
Arzu ALTIN
Journal
Ekoloji
Pages
52–59
Publication Date
2022-10-17
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

In November 2005, monthly average water quantity reaching was 244.270 m3, and it is forecasted to be 206.560 m3.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this study, daily water quantity data in the Porsuk Dam which is taken from State Hydraulic Works (SHW) 3rd Regional Directorate, reaching during January 1992-November 2005 was examined.
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Key Findings & Data:ARIMA (1,1,1) model was found appropriate to forecast the amount of water in the Porsuk Dam.A forecast related to water quantity which comes to the dam for 12-months is realized.
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Conclusion & Impact:In November 2005, monthly average water quantity reaching was 244.270 m3, and it is forecasted to be 206.560 m3.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2005 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

In this study, daily water quantity data in the Porsuk Dam which is taken from State Hydraulic Works (SHW) 3rd Regional Directorate, reaching during January 1992-November 2005 was examined. Then, monthly average values were determined by using these daily data and analyzed through Box-Jenkins method. ARIMA (1,1,1) model was found appropriate to forecast the amount of water in the Porsuk Dam.A forecast related to water quantity which comes to the dam for 12-months is realized. In December 2004, monthly average water quantity reaching to the Dam was 256.000 m3 and it is forecasted as 360.590 m3. In November 2005, monthly average water quantity reaching was 244.270 m3, and it is forecasted to be 206.560 m3.

Özet

Bu çalışmada 1992 Ocak- 2005 Kasım dönemi için Porsuk Barajı'na günlük gelen su miktarı verileri Devlet Su İşleri 3. Bölge Müdürlüğü'nden elde edilmiştir. Daha sonra günlük verilerin aylık ortalamaları alınmış ve veriler Box-Jenkins yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Porsuk Barajı'na gelen su miktarına ilişkin öngörüde bulunmak için ARIMA (1,1,1) modeli uygun bulunmuştur. Baraja gelen aylık ortalama su miktarına ilişkin 12 aylık öngörü yapılmıştır. 2004 yılının Aralık ayında baraja gelen aylık ortalama su miktarı 256,000 m3'e ulaşmış ve bu dönem için 360,590 m3 olarak öngörülmüştür. 2005 Kasım ayında aylık ortalama su miktarı 244,270 m3 olarak gerçekleşmiş ve 206,560 m3 olarak öngörülmüştür.

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Cite This Article

ÖZAYDIN, Ö., CEMREK, F., ALTIN, A. (2022). Porsuk Barajı'ndaki su miktarının istatistiksel olarak modellenmesi. Ekoloji, Cilt: 17 - Sayı: 67, 52–59. https://ajindex.com/articles/499211

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