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Journals / Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi / 2010 / Cilt: 65 - Sayı: 4

The determinants of foreign trade deficits under floating exchange rate Regime: Bounds test approach

Türkiye’de esnek döviz kuru rejimi altında dış açıkların belirleyicileri: Sınır testi yaklaşımı

Sevda YAPRAKLI
Pages
141–163
Publication Date
2022-10-11
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Analysis results in short run belongingto budget deficit and real effective exchange rate index are demonstration parallel with the relationship resultsin long run.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The purpose of this paper is to investigate fundamental factors affecting foreign trade deficit ofTurkey that in the content of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies.
📊
Key Findings & Data:For this purpose, the effects of realbudget deficit, real monetary supply and real effective exchange rate index on real foreign trade deficit areanalyzed econometrically by using bounds test by using monthly series belonging to the period of 2001:3- 2009:6 that floating exchange rate regime is implemented.
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Conclusion & Impact:Analysis results in short run belongingto budget deficit and real effective exchange rate index are demonstration parallel with the relationship resultsin long run.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2001 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate fundamental factors affecting foreign trade deficit ofTurkey that in the content of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies. For this purpose, the effects of realbudget deficit, real monetary supply and real effective exchange rate index on real foreign trade deficit areanalyzed econometrically by using bounds test by using monthly series belonging to the period of 2001:3- 2009:6 that floating exchange rate regime is implemented. According to the analysis results, foreign tradedeficit is positively and statistically significant effected by budget deficit, negatively and statisticallysignificant effected by monetary supply, and posivitely and not statistically significant by real effectiveexchange rate index in the long run. Furthermore, analysis results in short run show that foreign trade deficitis posivitely and statistically significant effected by monetary supply. Analysis results in short run belongingto budget deficit and real effective exchange rate index are demonstration parallel with the relationship resultsin long run.

Özet

Çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret açıklarını etkileyen temel faktörleri, maliye, para ve dövizkuru politikası çerçevesinde incelemektir. Bu amaçla çalışmada, esnek döviz kuru rejiminin uygulandığı2001:3-2009:6 dönemine ait aylık zaman serileri kullanılarak reel bütçe açığı, reel para arzı ve reel efektifdöviz kuru endeksinin reel dış ticaret açığı üzerindeki etkileri sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak ekonometrikaçıdan incelenmektedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre uzun dönemde dış ticaret açığı; bütçe açığından pozitif veistatistiki açıdan anlamlı, para arzından negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı, reel efektif kur endeksinden isepozitif ve istatistiki açıdan anlamsız olarak etkilenmektedir. Öte yandan kısa dönemli analiz sonuçları, paraarzının dış ticaret açığını pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bütçe açığı ve reelefektif kur endeksine ait kısa dönemli analiz sonuçları ise uzun dönemli ilişki sonuçlarıyla paralellik arzetmektedir.

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Cite This Article

YAPRAKLI, S. (2022). The determinants of foreign trade deficits under floating exchange rate Regime: Bounds test approach. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, Cilt: 65 - Sayı: 4, 141–163. https://ajindex.com/articles/443071

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