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Journals / Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi / 2020 / Cilt: 8 - Sayı: İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler

Investigation of Factors Affecting Economic Growth Rate with Quantile Regression: The Instance of Turkey

Ekonomik Büyüme Oranını Etkileyen Faktörlerin Kantil Regresyon ile İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Yüksel Akay ÜNVAN
Oğuzhan DEMİREL
Pages
175–188
Publication Date
2022-10-11
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the results, CPI and CPI-based REER negatively affect the economic growth rate of Turkey.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The aim of this study has examined the factors affecting the economic growthrate in Turkey, which has experienced a wavy pace in recent years.
📊
Key Findings & Data:A data set has created using data of the 2010-Q1 and 2019-Q3 periods of economic growth rate, external debt stock, consumer price index (CPI), CPI-based real effective exchange rate (REER), and real interest rate.
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Conclusion & Impact:According to the results, CPI and CPI-based REER negatively affect the economic growth rate of Turkey.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2010 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

The aim of this study has examined the factors affecting the economic growthrate in Turkey, which has experienced a wavy pace in recent years. A data set has created using data of the 2010-Q1 and 2019-Q3 periods of economic growth rate, external debt stock, consumer price index (CPI), CPI-based real effective exchange rate (REER), and real interest rate. Firstly, stabilization has been achieved by taking the 1st-degree differences of variables with the ADF test. Then, a regression model has established using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. However, due to this regression model contained outlier observations, the quantile regression method has been utilized. According to the results, CPI and CPI-based REER negatively affect the economic growth rate of Turkey.

Özet

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de son yıllarda dalgalıbir hareket sergileyen ekonomik büyüme oranını etkileyen faktörleri incelemek amacıyla yapılmıştır. Ekonomik büyüme oranı, dış borç stoku, tüketici fiyatları endeksi (TÜFE) bazlı reel efektif döviz kuru, reel faiz oranı ve tüketici fiyatları endeksine ait 2010-Q1 ve 2019-Q3 dönemi verileri kullanılarak bir veri seti oluşturulmuştur. Öncelikle değişkenlerin durağanlıkları, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testiylesınanmıştır. Değişkenlerin 1.dereceden farkları alınarak durağanlaştırma sağlanmıştır. Daha sonra, en küçük kareler (EKK) yöntemi kullanılarak bir regresyon modeli kurulmuştur. Fakat bu regresyon modeli, aykırı gözlemler içerdiğinden dolayı kantil regresyon yöntemi kullanılmıştır.Sonuçlara göre, Türkiye’ye ait ekonomik büyüme oranını; TÜFE bazlı reel efektif döviz kuru ve yıllık tüketici fiyatları endeksi negatif etkilemektedir.

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Cite This Article

ÜNVAN, Y. A., DEMİREL, O. (2022). Investigation of Factors Affecting Economic Growth Rate with Quantile Regression: The Instance of Turkey. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 8 - Sayı: İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler, 175–188. https://ajindex.com/articles/439871

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