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Journals / Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi / 2007 / Cilt: 7 - Sayı: 14

Identifiying the turning points in Turkish business cycles

Türkiye ekonomisinde iş çevrimlerinin tarih ve süre aralıklarının tespiti

İbrahim ÖZKAN
Lütfi ERDEN
Pages
1–19
Publication Date
2022-10-11
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Overall, the results show that the Turkish business cycles share similar characteristics with developing economies.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The objective of this study is to identify the turning points in the Turkish economy in an effort to analyze the main characteristics of the Turkish business cycles.
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Key Findings & Data:To this end, the classical and deviation cycles are extracted by using the filters developed by Hodrick and Prescott (1997, HP) and Baxter and King (1999) respectively.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Overall, the results show that the Turkish business cycles share similar characteristics with developing economies.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

The objective of this study is to identify the turning points in the Turkish economy in an effort to analyze the main characteristics of the Turkish business cycles. To this end, the classical and deviation cycles are extracted by using the filters developed by Hodrick and Prescott (1997, HP) and Baxter and King (1999) respectively. An optimal smoothing parameter for the HP filter is estimated. Bry and Boschan (1971) procedure is applied to identify the turning points. Accordingly, there are three complete classical cycles ranging between two and six years. The deviation cycles exhibit a symmetrical pattern contrary to the classical cycles. Overall, the results show that the Turkish business cycles share similar characteristics with developing economies.

Özet

Bu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisinde yaşanan dönüm noktalarını ve dolayısıyla iş çevrimlerinin temel özelliklerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla, parametrik olmayan Hodrick ve Prescott (1997, HP) ve Baxter ve King (1999) filtreleme yöntemleri klasik ve büyüme iş çevrimlerini ayrıştırmak için kullanılmıştır. HP filtrelemesinde kullanılan optimal pürüz giderici (smoothing parameter) değeri, diğer çalışmalardan farklı bir şekilde, istatistiksel olarak tahmin edilmiştir. Çevrimlerin dönüm noktalarının tespitinde Bry ve Boschan (1971) prosedürü temel alınmıştır. Çalışmada, üç tam klasik iş çevrimi belirlenmiş ve çevrimlerin iki ile altı yıl aralığında gerçekleştiği ortaya konulmuştur. Klasik iş çevrimlerinin aksine, büyüme iş çevrimlerinin yaklaşık olarak simetrik bir yapıda olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bulgular, Türkiye ekonomisindeki çevrimlerin, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin çevrim karakteristikleriyle uyum sağladığını göstermektedir.

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Cite This Article

ÖZKAN, İ., ERDEN, L. (2022). Identifiying the turning points in Turkish business cycles. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, Cilt: 7 - Sayı: 14, 1–19. https://ajindex.com/articles/433210

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