Journals / Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi / 2026 / Sayı: 35

TESTING NEWS EFFECT IN THE COVID-19 PROCESS WITH OVERREACTION HYPOTHESIS ON BIST30 INDEX

COVID-19 SÜRECİNDE HABER ETKİSİNİN BIST30 ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNDE AŞIRI REAKSİYON HİPOTEZİYLE TEST EDİLMESİ

İlknur Ülkü Armağan(SÜLEYMAN DEMİREL ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-0542-0007
Murat Ali Dulupçu(SÜLEYMAN DEMİREL ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0001-9269-5978
Pages
66–84
Publication Date
2022-05-29
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that BIST30 Index stock investors react negative news more than positive news, and also domestic news causes more overreaction anomalies than global news.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Many positive or negative news are announced by the authorities regarding the COVID-19 pandemic process.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In the study, the effect of five selected news, announced by the authorities regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey and around the world, between December 2019 and December 2020, is tested on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST30) Index stocks with the Overreaction Hypothesis with the event analysis approach.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that BIST30 Index stock investors react negative news more than positive news, and also domestic news causes more overreaction anomalies than global news.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2019 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Aşırı Reaksiyon Hipotezi · Fiyat Anomalileri · Olay Analizi

Abstract

Many positive or negative news are announced by the authorities regarding the COVID-19 pandemic process. These news, depending on the degree and duration of their impact on financial investors, cause price anomalies, especially in stock markets, which are the main indicators of national economies. In the study, the effect of five selected news, announced by the authorities regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey and around the world, between December 2019 and December 2020, is tested on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST30) Index stocks with the Overreaction Hypothesis with the event analysis approach. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that BIST30 Index stock investors react negative news more than positive news, and also domestic news causes more overreaction anomalies than global news.

Özet

Tüm dünyayı olumsuz şekilde etkileyen ve etkisi halen devam eden COVID-19 pandemi süreci ile ilgili yetkililer tarafından birçok olumlu ya da olumsuz haber açıklanmaktadır. Bu haberler de finansal yatırımcılar üzerindeki etki derecesi ve süresine göre özelikle ülke ekonomilerinin başlıca göstergelerinden olan menkul kıymet borsalarında farklı reaksiyonlara, fiyat anomalilerine sebep olmaktadır. Çalışmada Aralık 2019 ve Aralık 2020 tarihleri arasında Türkiye’de ve dünyada özellikle COVID-19 pandemisi ve gelişimiyle ilgili yetkililer tarafından açıklanan, seçilen beş haberin etkisi Olay Analizi Yaklaşımıyla Aşırı Reaksiyon Hipotezi ile Borsa Istanbul (BIST30) Endeksi pay senetleri üzerinde test edilmektedir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda, BIST30 Endeksi (XU030) pay senedi yatırımcılarının yaşanan süreçteki olumsuz haberlere olumlu haberlerden daha fazla reaksiyon verdiği, ayrıca yurtiçi haberlerin global haberlere göre daha çok aşırı reaksiyon anomalisine neden olduğu tespit edilmektedir.

🔖

Cite This Article

Armağan, İ. Ü., Dulupçu, M. A. (2022). TESTING NEWS EFFECT IN THE COVID-19 PROCESS WITH OVERREACTION HYPOTHESIS ON BIST30 INDEX. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Sayı: 35, 66–84. https://doi.org/10.20875/makusobed.1057500

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (46)

  1. Al-Awadhi, A.M., Al-Saifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A. and Alhamadi, S. (2020). Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, (27), 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100326
  2. Ali, M., Alam, N. and Rizvi, S.A.R. (2020). Coronavirus (COVID-19) an epidemic or pandemic for financial markets. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, (27), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100341
  3. Ball, R. and Brown, P. (1968). An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers. Journal of Accounting Research, Autumn, 6(2), 159-178. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490232
  4. Barberis, N., Shleifer, A. and Vishny, R. (1998), A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 307–343. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(98)00027-0
  5. Blancard, G.C. and Tatu, D. (2012). Stock market reaction to layoff announcements: European evidence (2002-2010), 21-22.
  6. Borsa İstanbul (BIST). (30 Eylül 2021). Pay piyasası verileri. https://datastore.borsaistanbul.com
  7. Bowman, R. G. and Iverson, D. (1998). Short-run overreaction in the New Zealand stock market. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 6(5), 475–491. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-538X(98)00021-3
  8. Brooks, R. M., Patel, A. and Su, T. (2003). How the equity market responds to unanticipated events. Journal of Business, 76(1), 109-133. https://doi.org/10.1086/344115
  9. Brown, S.J. and Wagner, J.B. (1980). Measuring security price performance. Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 8(3), 205-258. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(80)90002-1
  10. Brown, S. J. and Warner, J.B. (1985). Using daily stock returns: The case of event studies of event-induced variance. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 3-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(85)90042-X
  11. Brown, K. C. and Harlow, W. V. (1988), Market overreaction: Magnitude and intensity. Journal of Portfolio Management, 14(2), 6-13. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1988.409137
  12. Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D. and Subrahmanyam, A. (1998), Investor psychology and security market under and overreactions. The Journal of Finance, 53(6), 1839-1885. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00077
  13. Debondt, W.F.M. and Thaler, R. (1985). Does stock market overreact? The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.x
  14. De Bondt, F.M. and Thaler R. (1987). Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality. Journal of Finance, 42(3), 557-581. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04569.x
  15. Dreman, D. (1982). The new contrarian investment strategy. Random House Publishment. Erişim tarihi: 11 Ocak 2022. https://www.amazon.com/New-Contrarian-Investment-Strategy/dp/0394523644
  16. Cox, D.R. and Peterson, D.R. (1994). Stock returns following large one-day declines: Evidence on short-term reversals and longer-term performance. Journal of Finance, 49(1), 255-267. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb04428.x
  17. Edwards, W. (1968). Conservatism in human information processing, Book; Judgment under uncertainty heuristics and biases, Chapter-25. Cambridge University Press, 2013, 359-369. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511809477.026
  18. Eizentas V., Krusinskas, R. and Stankeviciene, J. (2012). Impact of public information signals on share prices: Evidence from Lithuania. Economics and Management, 17(3), 879-888. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.em.17.3.2098
  19. Fama, E.F, Fisher, L., Jensen, M.C. and Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.321524
  20. Fama, E.F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383–417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
  21. Fama, E.F. (1991). Efficient capital markets: II. The Journal of Finance, 46(5), 1575–1617. https://doi.org/10.2307/2328565
  22. Farag, H. and Cressy, R.C. (2010). Do unobservable factors explain the disposition effect in emerging stock markets. Applied Financial Economics August, 20(15), 1173-1183. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603101003781463
  23. Fernande-Perez, A., Gilbert, A., İndriawan, I. and Nguyen, N.H. (2021). COVID-19 pandemic and stock market response: A culture effect, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100454
  24. Gormsen, N.J. and Koijen, R.S.J. (2020). Coronavirus: Impact on stock prices and growth expectations, The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 574–597. https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa013
  25. Griffen, D. and Tversky, A. (1992). The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence, Cognitive Psychology, 24(3), 411-435. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(92)90013-R
  26. Grofi-Klufiman, A. and Nikolaus, H. (2011). When machines read the news: Using automated text analysis to quantify high frequency news-implied market reactions. Journal of Empirical Finance, 18(2), 321-340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2010.11.009
  27. Gutierrez Jr., R. C. and Kelley, E.K. (2005). Evidence to the contrary: Extreme weekly returns are not overreactions. Thesis.
  28. Howe, John S. (1986). Evidence on stock market overreaction, Financial Analysts Journal, 42(4), 74-77. Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu (KAP). (30 Eylül 2021). BIST Şirketleri, Endeksler, Erişim Tarihi: 11 Ocak 2022. https://www.kap.org.tr/tr/Endeksler
  29. Klößner, S., Becker, M. and Friedmann, R. (2012). Modeling and measuring intraday overreaction of stock prices, Journal of Banking & Finance, 36(4), 1152-1163.
  30. Lasfer, M. A., Melnik, A. and Thomas, D. C. (2003). Short-term reaction of stock markets in stressful circumstances, Journal of Banking and Finance, 27(10), 1959-1977. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00313-8
  31. Lehmann, B. N. (1990). Fads, martingales, and market efficiency. Quarterly Journal of Economica, 105(1), 1-28. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937816
  32. Liang, Y. and Mullineaux, D.J. (1994). Overreaction and reverse anticipation: Two related puzzles? Journal of Financial Research, 17(1), 31-43. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6803.1994.tb00172.x
  33. Lintner, J. (1965). The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investment in stock portfolios and capital budgets. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 47(1), 13-37. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926735
  34. Maneenop, S. and Kotcharin, S. (2020). The impacts of COVID-19 on the global airline industry: An event study approach. Journal of Air Transport Management, 89(2). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101920
  35. Mun, J., Vasconcellos, G. M. and Kish, R. (1999). Tests of the contrarian investment strategy evidence from the French and German stock markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 8(3), 215-234. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1057-5219(99)00016-2
  36. Musnadi, S., Faisal, M. and Majid, S., (2018). Overreaction and underreaction anomalies in the Indonesian stock market: A sectoral analysis. International Journal of Ethics and Systems, 34(4), 2514-9369. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOES-12-2017-0235
  37. Ramelli, S. and Wagner, A.F. (2020). Feverish stock price reactions to COVID-19. The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, 9(3), 622–655. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550274
  38. Saens, R. and Sandoval, E. (2005). Measuring security price performance using Chilean daily stock returns: The event study method. Cuadernos de Economía, 42(126), 307-328.
  39. Sharpe, W.F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk, Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x
  40. Sprenger, O.T. and Welpe, I.M. (2011). News or noise? The stock market reaction to different types of company-specific news events, January. SSRN Electronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1734632
  41. Storkenmaier, A., Wagener, M. and Weinhardt, C. (2012). Public information in fragmented markets. Journal of Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 26(2), 179–215. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0185-2
  42. Tuominen, T. (2005). Corporate layoff announcements and shareholder value: Empirical evidence from Finland, Department of Business Administration. [Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi]. Lappeenranta University of Technology.
  43. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, New Series, 185(4157), 1124-1131. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
  44. Woolridge, R. J. (1988). Competitive decline and corporate restructurings: Is a myopic stock market to blame?”. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 1(1), 26-36. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6622.1988.tb00155.x
  45. Worrel, D.L., Davidson, W.N. and Sharma, V.M. (1991). Layoff announcements and stockholder wealth. The Academy of Management Journal, September, 34(3), 662-678. https://doi.org/10.5465/256410
  46. Vardar, G. and Okan, B. (2008). Short term overreaction effect: Evidence on the Turkish Stock Market. International Conference on Emerging Economic Issues in a Globalizing World, 155-165.