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Journals / Balıkesir Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi / 2022 / Cilt: 24 - Sayı: 1

Investigating the periodicities of the Turkish food inflation with considering the subgroups

Türkiye gıda enflasyonunun dönemselliklerinin alt gruplar dikkate alınarak incelenmesi

Kamil Demirberk ÜNLÜ
Yılmaz AKDİ
Cem BAŞ
Yunus Emre KARAMANOĞLU
Pages
232–250
Publication Date
2022-01-05
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The results of this study reveal that food inflation of Turkey has cycles of approximately 2 years which is mostly derived by food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This paper empirically identifies the hidden periodicities in the time series of monthly food inflation of Turkey with its subgroups for the periods from January, 2004 to June, 2020.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Periodicity is the hidden cycles of the time series which is beyond the seasonality.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:The results of this study reveal that food inflation of Turkey has cycles of approximately 2 years which is mostly derived by food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2004 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Harmonik regresyon · periodogram · gıda enflasyonu

Abstract

This paper empirically identifies the hidden periodicities in the time series of monthly food inflation of Turkey with its subgroups for the periods from January, 2004 to June, 2020. Periodicity is the hidden cycles of the time series which is beyond the seasonality. In order to deal with this hidden cycles periodogram based time series analysis is used. Also, future inflation ratios are forecasted by Harmonic regression. The results of this study reveal that food inflation of Turkey has cycles of approximately 2 years which is mostly derived by food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation.

Özet

Bu makale, Ocak 2004 - Haziran 2020 dönemleri için Türkiye aylık gıda enflasyonu zaman serilerindeki gizli periyodiklikleri alt grupları ile ampirik olarak tanımlamaktadır. Dönemsellik, mevsimselliğin ötesinde olan zaman serilerinin gizli döngüleridir. Bu gizli döngülerle başa çıkmak için periodogram tabanlı zaman serisi analizi kullanılır. Ayrıca, gelecekteki enflasyon oranları harmonik regresyon ile tahmin edilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın sonuçları, Türkiye gıda enflasyonunun yaklaşık 2 yıllık döngülere sahip olduğunu ve bunun çoğunlukla gıda ve alkolsüz içecek enflasyonundan kaynaklandığını ortaya koymaktadır.

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Cite This Article

ÜNLÜ, K. D., AKDİ, Y., BAŞ, C., KARAMANOĞLU, Y. E. (2022). Investigating the periodicities of the Turkish food inflation with considering the subgroups. Balıkesir Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt: 24 - Sayı: 1, 232–250. https://ajindex.com/articles/393216

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