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Journals / International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences / 2022 / Cilt: 34 - Sayı: 1

Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5

HIRHAM5 Kullanılarak Akdeniz Havzası’nın Gelecek Klimatolojisi ve Ekstrem Olaylarındaki Değişikliklerin Projeksiyonları

Tuğba ÖZTÜRK
Pages
167–189
Publication Date
2022-03-30
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the results, severity of temperature- and precipitation-based indices will be expected to increase throughout the century with increasing radiative forcing.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:In this work, change of temperature and precipitation climatology over Mediterranean Basin including Turkey were investigated using HIRHAM5 driven by global climate models such as EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES and NorESM1-M for 2011-2100 compared to 1971-2000.
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Key Findings & Data:According to the results, severity of temperature- and precipitation-based indices will be expected to increase throughout the century with increasing radiative forcing.
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Conclusion & Impact:Therefore, Mediterranean Basin and Turkey will have warmer and drier conditions compared to present climate conditions.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2011 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Akdeniz Havzası · Türkiye · İklim Değişikliği

Abstract

In this work, change of temperature and precipitation climatology over Mediterranean Basin including Turkey were investigated using HIRHAM5 driven by global climate models such as EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES and NorESM1-M for 2011-2100 compared to 1971-2000. Daily mean temperature and precipitation fields are used to compute extreme indices. According to the results, severity of temperature- and precipitation-based indices will be expected to increase throughout the century with increasing radiative forcing. Minimum of minimum temperatures will increase more pronounced over northern Mediterranean, which is referred to climate change hot spots, whereas increase in maximum of maximum temperatures are moderate over land areas. Decrease in total wet-day precipitation is expected while number dry days is expected to increase. Therefore, Mediterranean Basin and Turkey will have warmer and drier conditions compared to present climate conditions.

Özet

Bu çalışmada, 1971–2000 referans dönemine göre 2011-2100 gelecek dönemi için Türkiye'nin de dahil olduğu Akdeniz Havzası üzerinde sıcaklık ve yağış klimatolojilerinde öngörülen değişiklikler, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES ve NorESM1-M olmak üzere üç küresel iklim modeli çıktılarıyla koşulan HIRHAM5 bölgesel iklim modeli benzetimleri kullanılarak değerlendirildi. Ekstrem iklim indekslerini hesaplamak için sıcaklık ve yağış değişkenlerinin günlük ortalamaları kullanıldı. Sonuçlara göre, artan ışınımsal zorlamayla birlikte yüzyıl boyunca sıcaklık ve yağış temelli ekstrem iklim indekslerinin daha şiddetlenmesi beklenmektedir. Minimum sıcaklıklardaki artış, iklim değişikliğinin en önemli sıcak noktalarından biri olması beklenen Akdeniz Havzası'nın kuzey kesiminde daha belirginken, maksimum sıcaklıklardaki artış ise karalar üzerinde ılımlıdır. Art arda gelen kurak günlerin sayısındaki artışla birlikte toplam yağışlı gün sayılarında azalma beklenmektedir. Bu nedenle, Akdeniz Havzası ve Türkiye üzerindeki mevcut iklim koşullarının daha yoğun ve daha sıcak olması öngörülmektedir.

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Cite This Article

ÖZTÜRK, T. (2022). Projections of Future Change of Climatology and Extreme Events in the Mediterranean Basin, by the HIRHAM5. International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences, Cilt: 34 - Sayı: 1, 167–189. https://ajindex.com/articles/382684

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