SavedAdd your journal

Journals / TİSK Akademi / 2013 / Cilt: 8 - Sayı: 15

An analysis of persistency of shocks to labor market indicators in Turkey

Türkiye'de işgücü piyasası göstergelerine etki eden şokların kalıcılığının analizi

İBRAHİM ARISOY
Pages
22–41
DOI
—
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings from the unit root test with structural breaks and long memory analysis based on Geweke Porter- Hudak, however, are conclusive, suggesting that shocks will have a permanent effect on the variables under examination.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The aim of this paper is to examine the issue of whether shocks to labor market indicators namely, unemployment, employment, labor force participation rates expressed as aggregated and disaggregated by gender are persistent or transitory by employing a range of unit root tests and long memory analysis for the period 2005:1-2011:11.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The results of unit root tests without a structural break are inconclusive.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:The findings from the unit root test with structural breaks and long memory analysis based on Geweke Porter- Hudak, however, are conclusive, suggesting that shocks will have a permanent effect on the variables under examination.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2005 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the issue of whether shocks to labor market indicators namely, unemployment, employment, labor force participation rates expressed as aggregated and disaggregated by gender are persistent or transitory by employing a range of unit root tests and long memory analysis for the period 2005:1-2011:11. The results of unit root tests without a structural break are inconclusive. The findings from the unit root test with structural breaks and long memory analysis based on Geweke Porter- Hudak, however, are conclusive, suggesting that shocks will have a permanent effect on the variables under examination.

Özet

Bu calışmanı amacı, 2005:1-2011:11 donemi aylık verileriyle Turkiyede, hem toplam hem de cinsiyete gore ayrıştırılmış işsizlik, istihdam, işgucune katılım oranı gibi işgucu piyasası gostergelerine etki eden şokların kalıcı mı yoksa gecici mi oldu.unu birim kok sınamaları ve uzun hafıza analizi vasıtasıyla incelemektir. Bu amacla, yapısal kırılmayı dikkate almayan birim kok sınamaları şokların kalıcılı.ı konusunda net bir sonuc vermemiş, ancak yapısal kırılmalı birim kok sınama ve yarı parametrik Geweke Porter-Hudak yontemine dayanan uzun hafıza analizi sonucları şokların analize konu de.işkenler uzerindeki etkisinin kalıcı olaca.ını gostermektedir.

🔖

Cite This Article

ARISOY, İ. (2013). An analysis of persistency of shocks to labor market indicators in Turkey. TİSK Akademi, Cilt: 8 - Sayı: 15, 22–41. https://ajindex.com/articles/366601

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (18)

  1. Andersen, T. M. (2010). Unemployment Persistence. CESifo Forum. 11 (1), 23-28
  2. Barışık, S. ve Cevik, İ.E. (2008). Turkiye’de İşsizlik Histerisinin Yapısal Kırılma ve Guclu Hafıza Modellemesi ile Sektorel Analizi. TİSK Akademi. 3(6), 67-87
  3. Barışık, S. ve Cevik, E. İ. (2008). İşsizlikte histeri etkisi: Uzun Hafıza Modelleri. Kamu-İ ş Dergisi. 9(4), 1-36
  4. Barro, R. (1988). The Natural Rate Theory Reconsidered: The Persistence of Unemployment. American Economic Review. 78(2), 32-37
  5. Baum, C.F., Barkoulas, J. and Caglayan, M. (1999). Persistence in International Inşation Rates. Southern Economic Journal. 65(4), 900-914
  6. Benati, L. (2001). Some Empirical Evidence on the ‘Discouraged Worker’ Effect. Economics Letters. 70, 387-39
  7. Blanchard, O.J. and Summers, L.H. (1986). Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem. Journal of Econometrics. 74, 119-147
  8. Blanchard, O. and Summers, L. (1987). Hysteresis in Unemployment. European Economic Review. 31(1), 288-95
  9. Blanchard, O. and Summers, L. (1988). Beyond the Natural Rate Hypothesis. American Economic Review. 78(2), 182-187
  10. Blanchard, O. and Wolfers, J. (2000). The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence. The Economic Journal. 110,1-33
  11. Brandolini, A., Cipollone, P. and Viviano, E. (2006). Does the ILO Definition Capture All Unemployment?. Journal of the European Economic Association. 4, 153-179
  12. Burda, M. C. (1990). Some Evidence on the Membership Hysteresis Hypothesis in Europe. Empirical Economics. 15, 143-152
  13. Clark, K. B. and Summers, L. H. (1979). Labour Market Dynamics and Unemployment: A Reconsideration. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 1, 13-63
  14. Coleman, T. S. (1989).
  15. Unemployment Behaviour, Evidence from the CPS Work Experience Survey. Journal of Human Resources. 24, 1-38
  16. Cuestas, J. C., Gil-Alana, L. A., and Staehr K. (2011). A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies. Journal of Comparative Economics. 39(4), 514–532 Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 74,427-431
  17. Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T. J. and Stock, J.H. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root. Econometrica. 64, 813–836 Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. 2nd Edition, John Wiley&Son, Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review. 58, 1-17
  18. Geweke, J. and Porter-Hudak, S.