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Journals / TİSK Akademi / 2012 / Cilt: 7 - Sayı: 14

The determinants of the current account deficits in Turkey: A time series analysis

Türkiye’de cari açıkların belirleyicileri: Bir zaman serisi analizi

ÖMER YILMAZ
MERTER AKINCI
Pages
54–83
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

In addition, as a result of the Johansen cointegration test applied to these variables, it has been concluded that there is a long run relationship between current account deficits and the national income and among real interest rate, exchange rate and foreign direct investment.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In many developing and emerging market economies, current account deficits are aroused great interest among researchers and policy makers.
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Key Findings & Data:In this context, determinants of current account deficits of Turkey economy for the period of 1980 – 2010 were analyzed using econometric methods.
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Conclusion & Impact:In addition, as a result of the Johansen cointegration test applied to these variables, it has been concluded that there is a long run relationship between current account deficits and the national income and among real interest rate, exchange rate and foreign direct investment.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2010 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

In many developing and emerging market economies, current account deficits are aroused great interest among researchers and policy makers. In this context, a number of studies were made to understand the dynamics and macroeconomic outcomes of the current accounts. The studies have shown that increasing current account deficits lead to financial crises by raising the risk of the country. In this context, determinants of current account deficits of Turkey economy for the period of 1980 – 2010 were analyzed using econometric methods. Variables with time series data are tested with ADF unit root test and it has been observed that some of the variables are stable in the level value and some of them are stable in the first difference value. In addition, as a result of the Johansen cointegration test applied to these variables, it has been concluded that there is a long run relationship between current account deficits and the national income and among real interest rate, exchange rate and foreign direct investment. Granger causality test was applied to determine the causal relationship between variables and the exception of the budget deficit variable, both single and bi-directional causal relationships were found between independent variables and the current account deficit.

Özet

Birçok gelişmekte olan ve yükselen piyasa ekonomisinde ortaya çıkan cari işlem açıklan, araştırmacılar ve politika yapımcıları arasında büyük bir ilgi uyandırmıştır. Bu kapsamda, cari işlemlerin dinamikleri ve makroekonomik sonuçlarının anlaşılabilmesi için çok sayıda çalışma yapılmıştır. Yapılan çalışmalar, artan cari açıkların ülke riskini yükselterek finansal krizlere yol açtığını göstermiştir. Bu bağlamda, cari açıkların belirleyicileri Türkiye ekonomisi 1980 - 2010 dönemi için ekonometrik yöntemler kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Değişkenlere ilişkin zaman serisi verileri ADF birim kök testi ile sınanmış ve bazı değişkenlerin seviye değerlerinde bazılarının ise birinci fark değerlerinde durağan oldukları gözlenmiştir. Ayrıca, bu değişkenlere uygulanan Johansen eşbütünleşme testi sonucunda, cari açıklar ile ulusal gelir, reel faiz oranı, döviz kura ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki elde edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasında nedensellik ilişkisini belirleyebilmek için Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmış ve bütçe açığı değişkeni hariç, incelenen bağımsız değişkenler ile cari açık arasında hem tek hem de çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri bulunmuştur.

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Cite This Article

YILMAZ, Ö., AKINCI, M. (2012). The determinants of the current account deficits in Turkey: A time series analysis. TİSK Akademi, Cilt: 7 - Sayı: 14, 54–83. https://ajindex.com/articles/364603

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