The results of the analyses indicate that the Winters' Exponential Smoothing model gives more consistent results than the Box-Jenkins model with respect to the future forecast value and decision-making criterion of the amount of milk supplied to the industry.
📌 3 Key Takeaways
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Objective & Hypothesis:Analysis of the quantity of cow milk supplied to the industry in Turkey is one of the methods that could provide stakeholders with the most accurate results from the perspective of raw milk projections and the interpretation of the sector.
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Key Findings & Data:The present study is intended to model the time series data of the amount of milk supplied to the dairy industry in Turkey between 2013/01 and 2018/03 using Box-Jenkins and Winters' Exponential Smoothing methods, and to analyse the production of milk and the future of the dairy industry in Turkey utilising the forecasts obtained from such models.
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Conclusion & Impact:The results of the analyses indicate that the Winters' Exponential Smoothing model gives more consistent results than the Box-Jenkins model with respect to the future forecast value and decision-making criterion of the amount of milk supplied to the industry.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2013 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters
Özet
Analysis of the quantity of cow milk supplied to the industry in Turkey is one of the methods that could provide stakeholders with the most accurate results from the perspective of raw milk projections and the interpretation of the sector. Therefore, it is important that the amount of milk supplied to the industry is used instead of the total amount of milk produced in the projections of the sector. The present study is intended to model the time series data of the amount of milk supplied to the dairy industry in Turkey between 2013/01 and 2018/03 using Box-Jenkins and Winters' Exponential Smoothing methods, and to analyse the production of milk and the future of the dairy industry in Turkey utilising the forecasts obtained from such models. The results of the analyses indicate that the Winters' Exponential Smoothing model gives more consistent results than the Box-Jenkins model with respect to the future forecast value and decision-making criterion of the amount of milk supplied to the industry.
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Cite This Article
AKIN, A. C., TEKİNDAL, M. A., ARIKAN, M. S., ÇEVRİMLİ, M. B. (2020). Modelling of the milk supplied to the industry in Turkey through Box-Jenkins and Winters' Exponential Smoothing methods. Veteriner Hekimler Derneği Dergisi, Cilt: 91 - Sayı: 1, 49–60. https://ajindex.com/articles/332957
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