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Journals / MALİYE FİNANS YAZILARI / 2017 / Sayı: 108

Evaluation of Current Account Deficit Problem in Turkey in terms of Real Exchange Rate and Dependency of Export to Import

Türkiye'de Cari Açık Sorununun Reel Döviz Kuru ve İhracatın İthalata Bağımlılığı Açısından Değerlendirilmesi

İ. Orçun GÜNDÜZ
Umut AKDUĞAN
Gökhan SÖNMEZLER
Pages
105–121
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings show that real exchange rate influences, in the long run, the import and export of intermediate goods, the import and export of consumer goods, and the aggregate export and import.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In the study, it is aimed to analyse both the impacts of thereal exchange rate in Turkey on the balance of foreign trade and thedependency of export to import in the segregationof intermediate goods, consumer goods, and raw material for 2003-2015 term.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Accordingly, therelationships between variables are investigated through the Johansen cointegration approach, the vector error correction model, and the Granger causality test.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:The findings show that real exchange rate influences, in the long run, the import and export of intermediate goods, the import and export of consumer goods, and the aggregate export and import.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2003-2015 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

In the study, it is aimed to analyse both the impacts of thereal exchange rate in Turkey on the balance of foreign trade and thedependency of export to import in the segregationof intermediate goods, consumer goods, and raw material for 2003-2015 term. Accordingly, therelationships between variables are investigated through the Johansen cointegration approach, the vector error correction model, and the Granger causality test. The findings show that real exchange rate influences, in the long run, the import and export of intermediate goods, the import and export of consumer goods, and the aggregate export and import.

Özet

Çalışmada, 2003-2015 dönemi için Türkiye'de reel döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkileri ile beraber ihracatın ithalata olan bağımlılığını ara mal, tüketim malı ve hammadde ayrımında analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler Johansen eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı, vektör hata düzeltme modeli ve Granger nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Bulgular; reel döviz kurunun ara mal ihracat ve ithalatını, tüketim malı ihracat ve ithalatını ve toplam ihracat ve ithalatı uzun dönemde etkilediğini göstermektedir.

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Cite This Article

GÜNDÜZ, İ. O., AKDUĞAN, U., SÖNMEZLER, G. (2017). Evaluation of Current Account Deficit Problem in Turkey in terms of Real Exchange Rate and Dependency of Export to Import. MALİYE FİNANS YAZILARI, Sayı: 108, 105–121. https://ajindex.com/articles/281500

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