SavedAdd your journal

Journals / İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi / 2013 / Cilt: 5 - Sayı: 1

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Consumer Confidence Index and Exchange Rate in Turkey

Türkiye'deki Tüketici Güven Endeksi ile Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Analizi

Mustafa İBİCİOĞLU
AYHAN KAPUSUZOĞLU
MEHMET BAHA KARAN
Pages
5–16
DOI
—
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The findings can be interpreted in a way as that the exchange rate is one of the factors that shape consumers' expectations regarding the future of the economy.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The aim of this study is to examine the short and long term relations between exchange rate and consumer confidence index.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In the study, two variables in total are discussed as consumer confidence index and dollar selling rate and a data set consisting of 95 observations in a monthly frequency spanning the 2003:12-2011:12 period is applied for each variable within the analysis.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:The findings can be interpreted in a way as that the exchange rate is one of the factors that shape consumers' expectations regarding the future of the economy.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2003 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the short and long term relations between exchange rate and consumer confidence index. In the study, two variables in total are discussed as consumer confidence index and dollar selling rate and a data set consisting of 95 observations in a monthly frequency spanning the 2003:12-2011:12 period is applied for each variable within the analysis. The consumer confidence index is based on the index prepared by Turkey Statistics Institution (TSI) and Republic of Turkey Central Bank (RTCB). As for exchange rate the monthly average value of the Dollar selling rate is taken as basis. Examined the empirical findings obtained, it is observed that there is both a short-term and a long-term relation between consumer confidence index and exchange rate within the period investigated in Turkey. The findings can be interpreted in a way as that the exchange rate is one of the factors that shape consumers' expectations regarding the future of the economy.

Özet

Bu çalışmanın amacı, döviz kuru ile tüketici güven endeksi arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkilerin incelenmesidir. Çalışmada, tüketici güven endeksi ve dolar satış kuru olmak üzere toplam iki değişken ele alınmış ve analiz kapsamında her bir değişken için 2003:12-2011:12 dönemini içeren aylık frekansta 95 adet gözlemden oluşan veri seti kullanılmıştır. Tüketici güven endeksi olarak Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TUİK) ve Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası (TCMB) tarafından hazırlanan endeks esas alınmıştır. Döviz kuru olarak ise, Dolar satış kurunun aylık ortalama değeri alınmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular incelendiğinde, Türkiye'de incelenen dönem arasında tüketici güven endeksi ile döviz kuru arasında hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde bir ilişkinin olduğu görülmektedir. Ulaşılan bu bulgular, döviz kurunun tüketicilerin ekonominin geleceğine yönelik beklentilerini şekillendiren faktörlerden birisi olduğu şeklinde yorumlanabilir.

🔖

Cite This Article

İBİCİOĞLU, M., KAPUSUZOĞLU, A., KARAN, M. B. (2013). Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Consumer Confidence Index and Exchange Rate in Turkey. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, Cilt: 5 - Sayı: 1, 5–16. https://ajindex.com/articles/269445

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (13)

  1. Abeele, V., (1983). "The index of consumer sentiment: Predictability and predictive power in the EEC", Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol:3, No:1, 1-17.
  2. Acemoğlu, D., Scott, A., (1994). "Consumer confidence and rational expectations: Are agents' beliefs consistent with the theory?", The Economic Journal, Vol:104, No:422, 1-19.
  3. Blood, D., Philips, P., (1995). "Recession headline news: Consumer sentiment, the state of the economy and presidential popularity: A time series analysis 1989-1993", International Journal of Public Opinion Research, Vol: 7, No:1, 1-22.
  4. Bram, J., Ludvigson, S., (1998). "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditures? A sentiment index horse race", Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, Vol:4, No:2, 59-78.
  5. Bremmer, D., (2008). "Consumer confidence and stock prices", 72nd Annual Meeting of the Midwest Economics Association, Chicago, Illinois. Chen, S. S., (2011). "Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns", Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol:18, No:2, 225-236.
  6. Çelik, S., Aslanoğlu, E., Deniz, P., (2010). "The relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables in Turkey during the global crisis", 30th Annual Meeting of the Middle East Economic Association, Atlanta, GA. Dickey, D., Fuller, W., (1979). "Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol:74, No:366, 427-431.
  7. Fuhrer, J., (1993). "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?", Federal Reseve Bank of Boston New England Review, Vol: January/February, 32-44.
  8. Fukuyama, F., (1998). Güven-sosyal erdemler ve refahın yaratılması, Çev: Ahmet Buğdaycı, Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları,
  9. Ankara.
  10. Görmüş, Ş., Güneş, S., (2009). "The effect of consumer confidence index on stock prices and exchange rate: The case of Turkey", EconAnadolu 2009: Anadolu International Conference in Economics, Eskisehir, Turkey. Granger, C. W. J., (1969). "Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods", Econometrica, Vol:37, No:3, 424-438.
  11. Hollanders, D., Vliegenthart, R., (2011). "The influence of negative newspaper coverage on consumer confidence: The Dutch case", Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol:32, No:3, 367-373.
  12. Hufner, F., Schroder, M., (2002). "Forecasting economic activity in Germany-how useful are sentiment indicators?", Centre for European Economic Research, Discussion Paper, No: 02-56.
  13. Huth, W., Eppright, D.,