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Journals / Sakarya University Journal of Science / 2026 / Volume: 23 Issue: 4

Measuring the Change by Using Markov Chain Approach in Time-Dependent Transitions and a Real Data Application

Nihan Potas(ANKARA HACI BAYRAM VELI UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH MANAGEMENT)0000-0002-0393-3135
Cemal Atakan(ANKARA UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF SCIENCE, DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS)0000-0001-6943-1675
Pages
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Publication Date
2019-08-01
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the results, before making any prediction: it concluded that one-step transition probabilities are not stationary and the three-step transition matrix is the second-order Markov Chain.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this study, the use of the Markov chain to measure the change in time-dependent transitions is emphasized.
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Key Findings & Data:Theoretically how to apply the Markov chain in the log-linear model with the help of one-step or higher-step transition matrices was demonstrated.
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Conclusion & Impact:According to the results, before making any prediction: it concluded that one-step transition probabilities are not stationary and the three-step transition matrix is the second-order Markov Chain.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2013-2014 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Contingency tables · Markov Chain · Log-Linear Analysis

Abstract

In this study, the use of the Markov chain to measure the change in time-dependent transitions is emphasized. Contingency tables were used to measure the time-dependent change of categorical data. Theoretically how to apply the Markov chain in the log-linear model with the help of one-step or higher-step transition matrices was demonstrated. In addition, the stationarity approach and the assessment of the order of the chain were given as the assumption of the model. In the real data application, 1217 undergraduate students, studying in Faculty of Political Science, Engineering, Science departments of Ankara University, were used. It was taken their cumulative average grades for 4 years, average grades for 8 semesters, beginning in the academic year 2013-2014.Whether the change in the success of the students is measurable in 8 semesters and 4 years, has been investigated. According to the results, before making any prediction: it concluded that one-step transition probabilities are not stationary and the three-step transition matrix is the second-order Markov Chain.

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Cite This Article

Potas, N., Atakan, C. (2019). Measuring the Change by Using Markov Chain Approach in Time-Dependent Transitions and a Real Data Application. Sakarya University Journal of Science, Volume: 23 Issue: 4. https://doi.org/10.16984/saufenbilder.477181

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