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Journals / Business and Economics Research Journal / 2018 / Cilt: 9 - Sayı: 3

Forecasting Sales Revenues of Turkish Manufacturing Industry by Grey Forecasting and Markov Model

Gri Tahmin ve Markov Modeli ile Türk İmalat Sanayinin Satış Gelirinin Öngörüsü

SELAHATTİN KAYNAK
MİRAÇ EREN
Pages
531–542
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

As a result of the analyzes, it has been found that in the Turkish manufacturing industry, the weight of public capital is gradually decreasing and that the private capital has a high level of penetration.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Turkish manufacturing industry has been increasingly important with the adoption of free market economy.
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Key Findings & Data:In terms of capital ownership, in Turkish manufacturing industry; public, private and foreign capital type companies operate in different status.
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Conclusion & Impact:As a result of the analyzes, it has been found that in the Turkish manufacturing industry, the weight of public capital is gradually decreasing and that the private capital has a high level of penetration.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2004-2014 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

Turkish manufacturing industry has been increasingly important with the adoption of free market economy. It has become the driving force of the Turkish economy in terms of employment, production and exports. In terms of capital ownership, in Turkish manufacturing industry; public, private and foreign capital type companies operate in different status. The aim of this study is to predict the sales income trends of the public, private and foreign capital types operating in different positions in terms of capital ownership in the Turkish manufacturing industry through the Grey and Markov model. The grey model for estimating the total sales revenue of the firms, and the new Markov approach based on the quadratic programming model for their trends have been proposed. These models were used to forecast the total sales of firms for the period 2004-2014 and to estimate the trends of 2017-2022 period. In the scope of the research, the sales revenues of Turkey's largest 500 industrial firms, operating in the manufacturing industry were analyzed. The analyzed dataset covers the period 1993-2014. As a result of the analyzes, it has been found that in the Turkish manufacturing industry, the weight of public capital is gradually decreasing and that the private capital has a high level of penetration.

Özet

Türk İmalat sanayi, serbest piyasa ekonomisinin benimsenmesiyle birlikte önemi giderek artmış; istihdam, üretim ve ihracat açısından Türk ekonomisinin itici gücü haline gelmiştir. Sermaye sahipliği açısından Türk imalat sanayinde; kamu, özel ve yabancı sermayeli türünde farklı statüdeki firmalar faaliyet göstermektedir. Türk imalat sanayinde sermaye sahipliği açısından farklı statüde faaliyet gösteren kamu, özel ve yabancı sermaye türlerinin satış gelirleri trendlerini Gri (Grey) ve Markov modeli ile tahmin etmek, bu çalışmanın amacını teşkil etmektedir. Firmaların toplam satış geliri tahmininde gri modeli, eğilimleri için de kuadratik programlama modeline dayalı yeni Markov yaklaşımı önerilmiştir. Bu modeller, firmaların 2004-2014 dönemine ait toplam satışlarını öngörmek ve 2017-2022 döneminin trendleri tahmin etmek için kullanılmıştır. Araştırma kapsamında, Türkiye’nin en büyük 500 sanayi kuruluşu arasında yer alan ve aynı zamanda imalat sanayinde faaliyet gösteren firmaların satış gelirleri analiz edilmiştir. Analiz edilen veri seti 1993-2014 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda, Türk imalat sanayinde kamu sermayesinin ağırlığı giderek azaldığı ve özel sermaye türüne yüksek düzeyde geçişin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

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Cite This Article

KAYNAK, S., EREN, M. (2018). Forecasting Sales Revenues of Turkish Manufacturing Industry by Grey Forecasting and Markov Model. Business and Economics Research Journal, Cilt: 9 - Sayı: 3, 531–542. https://ajindex.com/articles/149469

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