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Journals / Central Bank Review / 2012 / Cilt: 12 - Sayı: 1

Uyuşmazlık Enflasyon Belirsizliği İçin Bir Gösterge Midir? Türkiye Örneği]

Is Disagreement a Good Proxy for Inflation Uncertainty? Evidence from Turkey

Timur HÜLAGÜ
Saygın ŞAHİNÖZ
Pages
53–62
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

In particular, disagreement seems to be a good proxy for inflation uncertainty for the 2001-2006 period while this relationship vanishes with the full-fledged inflation targeting regime after 2006.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study uses inflation expectation errors to measure inflation uncertainty in Turkey by analyzing the CBRT Survey of Expectations data and investigates whether the disagreement among the survey participants can be used as a proxy for inflation uncertainty.
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Key Findings & Data:Results reveal the importance of the inflation targeting regime.
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Conclusion & Impact:In particular, disagreement seems to be a good proxy for inflation uncertainty for the 2001-2006 period while this relationship vanishes with the full-fledged inflation targeting regime after 2006.
🔬Design:Survey & Empirical Study
📍Scope:2001-2006 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

This study uses inflation expectation errors to measure inflation uncertainty in Turkey by analyzing the CBRT Survey of Expectations data and investigates whether the disagreement among the survey participants can be used as a proxy for inflation uncertainty. Results reveal the importance of the inflation targeting regime. In particular, disagreement seems to be a good proxy for inflation uncertainty for the 2001-2006 period while this relationship vanishes with the full-fledged inflation targeting regime after 2006.

Özet

Bu çalışmada TCMB Beklenti Anketi enflasyon beklentileri ile gerçekleşmeler arasındaki farklar kullanılarak Türkiye için bir enflasyon belirsizliği ölçütü oluşturulmuş ve anket katılımcıları arasındaki uyuşmazlığın oluşturulan bu ölçüt için bir gösterge olarak kullanılıp kullanılamayacağı araştırılmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye?de enflasyon hedeflemesine geçiş öncesi dönem için uyuşmazlığın enflasyon belirsizliği göstergesi olarak kullanılabileceğini ancak enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimiyle beraber bu ilişkinin kaybolduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

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Cite This Article

HÜLAGÜ, T., ŞAHİNÖZ, S. (2012). Uyuşmazlık Enflasyon Belirsizliği İçin Bir Gösterge Midir? Türkiye Örneği]. Central Bank Review, Cilt: 12 - Sayı: 1, 53–62. https://ajindex.com/articles/148726

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References (13)

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