SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Central Bank Review / 2012 / Cilt: 12 - Sayı: 1

Core Inflation in Turkey: An Econometric Approach

Türkiye'de Çekirdek Enflasyon: Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım

Özlem YİĞİT
Atilla GÖKÇE
Pages
37–51
DOI
—
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Assuming that movements in headline inflation are stemmed from supply, import price, and demand shocks, core inflation is estimated as a component of headline inflation, which has no effect on real output in the long-run or, which is driven by demand shocks

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this paper, core inflation in the Turkish Economy is estimated using the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach proposed by Quah and Vahey (1995).
📊
Key Findings & Data:One of the main problems for a monetary authority with an explicit or implicit goal of price stability is to have a proper assessment of the impact of external shocks on final domestic prices.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Assuming that movements in headline inflation are stemmed from supply, import price, and demand shocks, core inflation is estimated as a component of headline inflation, which has no effect on real output in the long-run or, which is driven by demand shocks
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

In this paper, core inflation in the Turkish Economy is estimated using the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach proposed by Quah and Vahey (1995). One of the main problems for a monetary authority with an explicit or implicit goal of price stability is to have a proper assessment of the impact of external shocks on final domestic prices. In order to explain this impact, Quah and Vahey?s model were extended to include import prices. Assuming that movements in headline inflation are stemmed from supply, import price, and demand shocks, core inflation is estimated as a component of headline inflation, which has no effect on real output in the long-run or, which is driven by demand shocks

Özet

Bu çalışmada Quah ve Vahey (1995) tarafından önerilen Yapısal VAR yaklaşımı kullanılarak Türkiye ekonomisi için çekirdek enflasyon tahmini elde edilmiştir. Açık veya örtülü fiyat istikrarı amacı olan para otoritesi için en temel problemlerden bir tanesi dışsal şokların nihai yurt içi fiyatlar üzerindeki etkisinin doğru bir şekilde değerlendirilmesidir. Bu nedenle Quah ve Vahey?in modeli, dışsal şokların ölçülen enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerini açıklamak için ithalat fiyatları dahil edilerek genişletilmiştir. Ölçülen enflasyonda gözlenen hareketlerin arz şokları, ithalat fiyatları şokları ve talep şoklarından kaynaklandığı varsayılan bu çalışmada çekirdek enflasyon, ölçülen enflasyonun uzun dönemde reel üretim üzerinde etkili olmayan kısmı olarak veya talep şokları tarafından belirlenen kısmı olarak tahmin edilmiştir

🔖

Cite This Article

YİĞİT, Ö., GÖKÇE, A. (2012). Core Inflation in Turkey: An Econometric Approach. Central Bank Review, Cilt: 12 - Sayı: 1, 37–51. https://ajindex.com/articles/148725

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (9)

  1. Atuk, O. ve Özmen, M. U., 2009, “Çekirdek Enflasyon Ölçümünde Yeni Bir Yaklaşım: SATRIM” İktisat İşletme ve Finans 24(285):73-88.
  2. Balke, N. S. ve Wynne, M. A., 1996, “Supply Shocks and the Distribution of Price Changes” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review First Quarter:10–18.
  3. Berkmen, P., 2002, “Measuring Core Inflation in Turkey: Trimmed Means Approach” Central Bank Review Vol.2, No.2, July. Bjornland, H. C., 2000, “Identifying Domestic and Imported Core Inflation” IMF Working Paper WP/00/4. Blanchard, O. J. ve Quah, D., 1989, “The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances” American Economic Review 79(4): 655-673.
  4. Blinder, A.S., 1982, “The Anatomy of Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s” in R.E.Hall (ed.) Inflation: Causes and Effects, University of Chicago Press for NBER, pp.261-282.
  5. Blix, M., 1995, “Underlying inflation – A Common Trends Approach” Sveriges Riksbank Arbetsrapport 23. Bryan, M. ve Pike, C., 1991, “Median Price Changes: An Alternative Approach to Measuring Current Monetary Inflation” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary Dec 1. Bryan, M. F. ve S. G. Cecchetti, 1993a, “The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Review 29(4):15–24.
  6. Bryan, M. F. ve Cecchetti, S. G., 1993b, “Measuring Core Inflation” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper 9304. Bryan, M. F., Cecchetti, S. G. ve Wiggins, R. L., 1997, “Efficient Inflation Estimation” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 6183. Buono, D. ve Koçak, N. A., 2010, “Backward Recalculation of Seasonal Series Affected by Economic Crisis: a Model-Based-Link Method for the Case of Turkish GDP” Eurostat 6th Colloquium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis. Ceylan, S., 2005, “Çekirdek Enflasyon Kavram, Literatür ve Uygulama” KTÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü İktisat ABD, yayımlanmamış doktora tezi. Cihan, C. ve Malatyalı, K., 1999, “Measuring Core Inflation in Turkey” DPT Working Papers 1999-02.
  7. Claus, I., 1997, “A Measure of Underlying Inflation for the United States” Bank of Canada Working Paper 97-20.
  8. Dewatcher, H. ve Lustig, H., 1997, “A Cross-Country Comparison of CPI as a Measure of Inflation” Catholic University of Leuven, CES Discussion Paper Series 97/06. Diewert, W. E., 1995, “On the Stochastic Approach to Index Numbers” University of British Columbia, Department of Economics. Discussion Paper 95-31.
  9. Di Dio, F. ve Felici F., 2009, “Estimating Core Inflation In Norway” Journal of