AI Summary & Key Takeaways
AI InsightQuantitative assessments reveal that the regional mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) declined from 0.51 to 0.43, marking a 15.7% overall reduction.
📌 3 Key Takeaways
Abstract
This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural vegetation in Antalya Province, a critical region hosting approximately 41% to 43% of Türkiye's total greenhouse area and providing 20% of the nation's fresh produce exports. Utilizing multi-temporal Landsat imagery and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial analysis between 2013 and 2025, the research identifies a statistically significant degradation and spatial fragmentation of agricultural landscapes. Quantitative assessments reveal that the regional mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) declined from 0.51 to 0.43, marking a 15.7% overall reduction. This decline is supported by a robust linear regression model demonstrating a steady vegetation loss of -0.0067 NDVI units annually (R² = 0.81, p 0.60) dropped precipitously from 18.5% to 9.7%. Conversely, "low vegetation" classes (<0.20) nearly doubled, expanding from 12.8% to 24.6%. Spatial difference analysis demonstrates that 38.6% of the total agricultural area experienced negative NDVI anomalies exceeding -0.10, with 14.2% enduring severe degradation (<-0.20). In contrast, only 11.8% of the landscape exhibited positive NDVI changes, primarily isolated within intensively managed greenhouse zones. Spatial synthesis strongly correlates the most severe vegetation reductions with rapid peri-urban development and expanding coastal infrastructure. Ultimately, these data-driven findings underscore the immediate threat of uncontrolled urban sprawl on Mediterranean agricultural productivity, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable land-use planning and continuous environmental monitoring.