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Journals / International Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences / 2021 / Volume: 7 Issue: 3

Transition Vulnerability in the Strait of Istanbul: Possible Tanker Explosion Simulation

İstanbul Boğazı Geçişi Güvenlik Açığı: Olası Tanker Patlama Simülasyonu

Müge Ensari Özay(İstanbul Medeniyet Üniversitesi)0000-0002-4785-5503
Hasan Köten(İSTANBUL MEDENİYET ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-1907-9420
Emine Can(ÜSKÜDAR ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-1192-2994
Pages
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Publication Date
2021-12-31
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

As a result of the possible explosion modeling, it is forseen that there is a great disaster in the strait of Istanbul.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Researches on maritime accidents show that many risk factors, including technical, human, operational and organizational, have important effects on accidents.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The main purpose of this study is to examine the impact area in the event of a possible tank explosion and fire in tankers carrying 10,000 m3 liquefied natural gas (LNG) passing through the strait of Istanbul.
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Conclusion & Impact:As a result of the possible explosion modeling, it is forseen that there is a great disaster in the strait of Istanbul.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:ALOHA · Accident at sea · sea transportation

Abstract

Researches on maritime accidents show that many risk factors, including technical, human, operational and organizational, have important effects on accidents. The consequences of accidents, especially in critical locations, can cause critical damages and destructions. While focusing on technical safety systems in current risk assessments, explosion modeling studies has great importance. The main purpose of this study is to examine the impact area in the event of a possible tank explosion and fire in tankers carrying 10,000 m3 liquefied natural gas (LNG) passing through the strait of Istanbul. In this study, the BLEEVE scenario in the LNG tank was analyzed using the open access ALOHA software program. It has been determined that the explosion could cause the destruction of buildings, serious injuries and shattering windows in the threat area of approximately 4.4 km. Furthermore, it has been determined that 10.0 kW/m2 of thermal radiation will occur in the 2.0 km threat zone and will be potentially lethal within 60 seconds. As a result of the possible explosion modeling, it is forseen that there is a great disaster in the strait of Istanbul.

Özet

Deniz kazaları araştırmaları, kazalarda teknik, insani, operasyonel ve organizasyonel olmak üzere pek çok risk faktörünün önemli etkilere sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Özellikle kritik öneme sahip olan lokasyonlarda olan kazaların sonuçları ciddi hasarlara ve yıkıma neden olabilmektedir. Mevcut risk değerlendirmelerinde teknik güvenlik sistemlerine odaklanırken, patlama modellemesi çalışmaları büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmanın ana amacı, İstanbul Boğazından geçen ve sıvılaştırılmış doğalgaz (LNG) taşıyan tankerlerde olası bir tank patlaması ve yangın durumunda kazanın etki alanlarını incelemektir. Çalışmada açık erişim olan ALOHA yazılım programı kullanılarak 10,000 m3’lük LNG tankında BLEVE senaryosu analiz edilmiştir. Patlamanın yaklaşık 4.4 km'lik tehdit bölgesinde binaların tahrip olmasına, ciddi yaralanmalara ve camların kırılmasına neden olabileceği belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca 2.0 km'lik tehdit bölgesinde 10.0 kW / m2 termal radyasyon oluşacağı ve 60 saniye içinde potansiyel olarak ölümcül olacağı saptanmıştır. Olası patlama modellemesi sonucunda İstanbul Boğazında çok büyük bir felaket yaşanacağı öngörülmektedir.

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Cite This Article

Özay, M. E., Köten, H., Can, E. (2021). Transition Vulnerability in the Strait of Istanbul: Possible Tanker Explosion Simulation. International Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences, Volume: 7 Issue: 3. https://doi.org/10.29132/ijpas.980054

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