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Journals / International Journal of Engineering and Geosciences / 2026 / Volume: 11 Issue: 2

Spatially explicit modeling of road icing susceptibility using GIS and a multi-criteria decision approach: A case study of Gümüşhane city (Türkiye)

Fatih Işık(Gümüşhane Üniversitesi, Edebiyat Fakültesi, Coğrafya Bölümü)0000-0001-9507-5651
Rabia Kanyılmaz(Gümüşhane Üniversitesi, Edebiyat Fakültesi, Coğrafya Bölümü)0009-0006-3283-7819
Savaş Çağlak(TC MİLLİ EĞİTİM BAKANLIĞI AMASYA)0000-0002-9051-7710
Selim Eraslan(Gümüşhane Üniversitesi, Edebiyat Fakültesi, Coğrafya Bölümü)0009-0006-3965-453X
Halil İbrahim Zeybek(ONDOKUZ MAYIS UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF ARTS AND SCIENCES, DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY, DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY)0000-0002-4097-9079
Pages
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Publication Date
2025-12-16
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Ultimately, this work provides a replicable, data-driven approach for enhancing urban resilience and traffic safety in challenging topographical settings.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study develops and validates a GIS-based, spatio-temporal model to identify and prioritize road segments with high icing susceptibility in the Gümüşhane city center, Türkiye.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Icing on urban roadways constitutes a significant threat to vehicular and pedestrian safety, particularly in regions characterized by complex topography and dense urban morphology.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Ultimately, this work provides a replicable, data-driven approach for enhancing urban resilience and traffic safety in challenging topographical settings.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:Comprehensive Sample
⚙️Variables:Icing Susceptibility · Urban Canyon · GIS

Abstract

This study develops and validates a GIS-based, spatio-temporal model to identify and prioritize road segments with high icing susceptibility in the Gümüşhane city center, Türkiye. Icing on urban roadways constitutes a significant threat to vehicular and pedestrian safety, particularly in regions characterized by complex topography and dense urban morphology. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework, employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with structured expert input, was used to synthesize ten primary causative factors. These include solar radiation, temperature, aspect, object height, precipitation, elevation, pavement material, slope, albedo, and road width — each representing a distinct topographic, climatic, or morphological influence on urban road icing. The AHP quantitatively established the relative influence of these factors, identifying solar radiation (28.5%), temperature (18.2%), and aspect (13.5%) as the most dominant drivers. The model generates monthly susceptibility maps that reveal "urban canyons"—narrow streets flanked by high-rise buildings—consistently exhibit the highest and most persistent susceptibility due to severely limited solar radiation. The accuracy of the model's spatial predictions was quantitatively validated through field observations, with 91.4% of recurring icing locations correctly identified within high or very high susceptibility zones. This research culminates not only in a robust scientific framework but also in a validated decision-support tool that has been successfully integrated into the Gümüşhane City Information System (GCIS), where it is now operationally used to optimize winter maintenance strategies. Ultimately, this work provides a replicable, data-driven approach for enhancing urban resilience and traffic safety in challenging topographical settings.

🔖

Cite This Article

Işık, F., Kanyılmaz, R., Çağlak, S., Eraslan, S., Zeybek, H. İ. (2025). Spatially explicit modeling of road icing susceptibility using GIS and a multi-criteria decision approach: A case study of Gümüşhane city (Türkiye). International Journal of Engineering and Geosciences, Volume: 11 Issue: 2. https://doi.org/10.26833/ijeg.1777524

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