HİSSE SENEDİ FİYATLARININ OLASILIKSAL TAHMİNİNDE GERİ-İTİLİM KULLANIMI

References (36)

1. Adams, J.K., ve Adams, P.A., "'Realism of confidence judgements l' Psychogical Revicw, 68 (1961) 33-45.
2. Adams, P.A., ve Adams,, "Training in-confidence judgments", American of Psychology, 71 (1958) 747-751.
3. Armstrong, J.S., Long-nangc Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer (2nd Ed.), New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985.
4. Ball, R. ve Brown, P., " An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers", Journal of Accounting Research, 6 (1968) 159-178.
5. Beach, B.H., "Expert judgment about uncertainty: Bayesian decision making in realistic settings", Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 14 (1975) 10-59.
6. Brier, G,W., "Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability", Monthly Weather Review, 78 (1950) 1-3.
7. Einhorn, vc Hogarlh, RM., "Decision-makjng: going forward in reverse", Høxvard Business Review, 65 (1987) 66-70.
8. Farnaj •E.F., *The behavior of stoCk market pricest'i Journal of Bussines, 38 (1965) 34-105.
9. Fischer, G.W., "Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subiectivé probability forecasting", OrgaAizationa1
10. Behavior and Human Performance, 29 (1982) 352-369.
11. Friedman, D. "Effective scoring rules for probabilistic forecasts", Management Scicnce, 29 (1983) 447-454.
12. Hogarth. RM., "Cognitive processes and the assessment of subjective probability distributions", Journal of thc American Statistical Association, 70 (1975) 271-289.
13. Jensen, M.C. 'The performance of mulual funds in thc period 1945-64 The Journal of finance, 2 (1968) 389-416.
14. Kidd, d.B., Scoring Rules for CuaoGcctive Assessments, A paper written for the Annual Confcrence or thc Operational Researc-.l Society, Torbay, England, ] 973.
15. Lichtcnstcin, S. ve Fischhoff, B. "Training for calibration", Organizatioal Behavior and Human Performance, 26 (1980) 149-171.
16. Moriarty M. "Deslgn features cf forecasting systems involving management judgments Journal of Marketing Rescarch, 22 (1985) 353-364. Murphy, A.H., " Scalar and vector partitions ofthe probability score: Part I.Two-state situation", Journal of Applied Meteorology, Il (ISD a) 273-20 Murphy, A.H., and vector partitions of the probability score: Part Il. N-state situation", Journal of Applied Meteorology, I I (1972b) 1183-1192
17. Murphy, A.H., 'IA new vector partition of the probability score", Journal of Applied 12 (1973) 595-600.
18. Murphy, A.H., ve Dean, I-IS, "Impacts of feedback and experience on the quality of subjective probability forecasts: Comparison of results from the first and second years of the Zierikzee experiment", Monthly Weather Review, 112 (1984) 413-423.
19. Murphy, A.H., Hsu, W., RL., ve Wilks, D.S., use of probabilities in subjective quantitative precipitation forecasts: Some experimental results", Monthly Weather Review, 113 (1985) 2075-2089-
20. Oskamp S., "The relationship of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical predictiontl Psychological Monographs, 76 (1962).
21. Pickhardt, R.C., ve Wallace, J.B., "A study of the performance of subject'i-ve probability assessors'i * Decision Sciences 5 (1974) 347-363.
22. Schaefer, R.D., ve Borcherding, K., 'The assessment of subjective probability distribution: A training experiment", Acta Psychologica, 37 (1973) 117-129.
23. Sengtth G.M., ve Önkal, D., Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts of Stock Prices in a Developing Stock Market, Discussion Papers 92/2, Bilkent University, 1992.
24. Stael von Holstein, C.A.S., "Probabilistic Forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market", Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 8 (1972) 139-158. Winkler, R.L., 'Scoring rules and the evaluation of probability assessors", Journal of the American Statistical Associatiom 64 (1969) 1073-1078.
25. Winkler, R.L., 'The assessment Of probability distributions for future se curity prices", in: J.L. Bicksler(ed.), Methodology in Finance Investments, 1972.
26. Yates, J.F„ "Analyzing the accuracy of probability judgments for multiple events: An extension of the covariance decomposition, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 30 (1988) 132-156.
27. Yates, J.F., McDaniel, and Brown, B.S., 'Probabilistic forecasts of stock prices and earnings: The hazards of nascent expertise", Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 40 (1991) 60-79.
28. Yeldan (Önkal), D:, The Effects of Feedback on the Performance of Probability Forecasts, Unpublished Phil).thesis, University of Minnesota, Graduate School of Business, 1988
29. Adams, P.A., ve Adams,, "Training in-confidence judgments", American of Psychology, 71 (1958) 747-751.
30. Ball, R. ve Brown, P., " An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers", Journal of Accounting Research, 6 (1968) 159-178.
31. Friedman, D. "Effective scoring rules for probabilistic forecasts", Management Scicnce, 29 (1983) 447-454.
32. Kidd, d.B., Scoring Rules for CuaoGcctive Assessments, A paper written for the Annual Confcrence or thc Operational Researc-.l Society, Torbay, England, ] 973.
33. Oskamp S., "The relationship of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical predictiontl Psychological Monographs, 76 (1962).
34. Schaefer, R.D., ve Borcherding, K., 'The assessment of subjective probability distribution: A training experiment", Acta Psychologica, 37 (1973) 117-129.
35. Sengtth G.M., ve Önkal, D., Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts of Stock Prices in a Developing Stock Market, Discussion Papers 92/2, Bilkent University, 1992.
36. Yeldan (Önkal), D:, The Effects of Feedback on the Performance of Probability Forecasts, Unpublished Phil).thesis, University of Minnesota, Graduate School of Business, 1988