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Journals / Paradigma: İktisadi ve İdari Araştırmalar Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 8 Sayı: 15

THE ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON STOCK INDEX EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Abdullah Ferit Erol(BATMAN UNIVERSITY, KOZLUK VOCATIONAL SCHOOL)0000-0001-6898-7540
Sinan Aytekin(BALIKESIR UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES)0000-0003-1502-2643
Pages
61–68
Publication Date
2019-07-10
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the results of the analysis, between BIST 100 index and the Overnight Lending Interest Rate, the Industrial Production Index and the Inflation Rate have been found statistically significant relationship.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The stock exchange indices are an indicator that is calculated according to the weights of equities that measure the proportional changes of equity prices and returns of the selected companies.
📊
Key Findings & Data:From this point of view the study, it is aimed to measure the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on BIST 100 index.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:According to the results of the analysis, between BIST 100 index and the Overnight Lending Interest Rate, the Industrial Production Index and the Inflation Rate have been found statistically significant relationship.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2009 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Borsa Istanbul · Macroeconomic Variables · Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

Özet

The stock exchange indices are an indicator that is calculated according to the weights of equities that measure the proportional changes of equity prices and returns of the selected companies. Besides the company-specific factors affecting the equity prices of companies, there are also macroeconomic factors. As a result of the influence of these factors on equity prices occur changes in the indices. From this point of view the study, it is aimed to measure the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on BIST 100 index. The BIST 100 Index has been used as dependent variable, the Inflation Ratio, the Overnight Lending Interest Rate, the Golden Ounce Price, the Industrial Production Index and the Growth Rate have been used as the independent variable in the study. Scope of the study, quarterly data between 2009:Q4-2018:Q3 periods are analyzed by the Multiple-linear Regression Model. According to the results of the analysis, between BIST 100 index and the Overnight Lending Interest Rate, the Industrial Production Index and the Inflation Rate have been found statistically significant relationship. On the other hand, between BIST 100 index and the Growth Rate and the Golden Ounce Price variables haven’t got statistically significant relationship.

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Cite This Article

Erol, A. F., Aytekin, S. (2019). THE ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON STOCK INDEX EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY. Paradigma: İktisadi ve İdari Araştırmalar Dergisi, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 15, 61–68. https://ajindex.com/articles/1378935

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References (6)

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  3. Siyasal Kitabevi.SAYILGAN, Güven and Cemil SÜSLÜ (2011), “The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Returns: A Study of Turkey and Emerging Markets.” Journal of BRSA Banking & Financial Markets, 5(1), 73-96.SHARMA, Gagan D. and Mandeep MAHENDRU (2010), “Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on Stock Prices in India.” Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 10(7), 19-26.TACALI, Eda D. (2008), Hisse Senedi Getirilerini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Faktörlerin Arbitraj Fiyatlama Modeli İle Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimleri Enstitüsü.TALLA, Joseph Tagne (2013), Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market Prices of the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Master’s thesis in International Financial Analysis, Jönköping International Business School.TARI, Recep (2010), Ekonometri, 11. Baskı, Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.ZÜGÜL, Muhittin. and Cumhur SAHIN, (2009), “An Application to Examine the Relationship between IMKB 100 Index and Some Macroeconomic Variables.” Akademik Bakış, 16, 1-16.
  4. ABUGRI, B. A. (2008), “Empirical Relationship between Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Returns: Evidence from Latin American Markets.” International Review of Financial Analysis, 17(2), 396-410.ACIKALIN, Sezgin; Rafet AKTAS and Seyfettin UNAL (2008), “Relationships between Stock Markets and Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Analysis of the Istanbul Stock Exchange.” Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 5(1), 8-16.ADARAMOLA, Anthony O. (2011), “The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Stock Prices in Nigeria.” Developing Country Studies, 1(2), 1-14.AKTAS, Metin and Saffet AKDAG (2013), “The Research on the Relation of Economic Factors and Stock Prices in Turkey.” International Journal of Social Science Research, 2(1), 50-67.ALBENI, Mesut and Yusuf DEMIR (2011), “The Effects of Macro Economic Indicators on Stock Prices of Financial Sector: An Application on Istanbul Stock Exchange.” Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Researches, 1(14), 1-18.AYDEMIR, Oguzhan and Erdal DEMIRHAN, (2009), “The Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Turkey.” International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 23(2), 207-215.BEKHET, Hussain A. and Mohamed Ibrahim MUGABLEH (2012), “Investigating Equilibrium Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Malaysian Stock Market Index through Bounds Tests Approach.” International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(10), 69-81.CIHANGIR, Mehmet and Tugrul KANDEMIR (2010), “An Essay Concerning with Determining Macro Economical Factors Which Affect Share Stocks At Financial Crisis Terms By Arbitrage Pricing Model (Observations and Evaluations on November 2000 and February 2001 Financial Crises).” Süleyman Demirel University the Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 15(1), 257-296.FLANNERY, Mark J. and Aris A. PROTOPAPADAKIS (2002), “Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns.” The Review of Financial Studies, 15(3), 751-782.GAN, Christopher; Minsoo LEE; Hua Hwa Au YONG and Jun ZHANG (2006), “Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Interactions: New Zealand Evidence.” Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 3(4), 89-101.GENCTURK, Mehmet (2009), “The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Prices in Financial Crises Periods.” Süleyman Demirel University the Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 14(1), 127-136.GURBUZ, Sait and Faruk SAHIN (2016), Sosyal Bilimlerde Araştırma Yöntemleri, 3. Baskı, Ankara:
  5. Seçkin Yayıncılık.HOSSEINI, Seyed. M.; Zamri AHMAD and Yew W. LAI, (2011), “The Role of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Index in China and India.” International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(6), 233-243.HSING, Yu and Wen-jen HSIEH (2012), “Impacts of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market Index in Poland: New Evidence.” Journal of Business Economics and Management, 13(2), 334-343.HUSSAINEY, Khaled. and Le KHANH NGOC (2009), “The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Vietnamese Stock Prices.” The Journal of Risk Finance, 10(4), 321-332.KUWORNU, John K. and Victor OWUSU-NANTWI (2011), “Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns: Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation.” Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2(4), 49-63.MENIKE, Lakse. M. C. S. (2006), “The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Emerging Sri Lankan Stock Market.” Sabaragamuwa University Journal, 6(1), 50-67.OUMA, Wycliffe N. and Peter MURIU (2014), “The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Returns in Kenya.” International Journal of Business and Commerce, 3(11), 1-31.OZER, Ali; Abdulkadir KAYA and Nevin OZER (2011), “Interaction of Macroeconomic Variables with Stock Prices.” Dokuz Eylul University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal, 26(1), 163-182.RAY, Sarbapriya (2012), “Testing Granger Causal Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Price Behaviour: Evidence from India.” Advances in Applied Economics and Finance, 3(1), 470-481.SAYILGAN, Güven (2017), Soru ve Yanıtlarıyla İşletme Finansmanı. 7. Basım, Ankara:
  6. Siyasal Kitabevi.SAYILGAN, Güven and Cemil SÜSLÜ (2011), “The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Returns: A Study of Turkey and Emerging Markets.” Journal of BRSA Banking & Financial Markets, 5(1), 73-96.SHARMA, Gagan D. and Mandeep MAHENDRU (2010), “Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on Stock Prices in India.” Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 10(7), 19-26.TACALI, Eda D. (2008), Hisse Senedi Getirilerini Etkileyen Makroekonomik Faktörlerin Arbitraj Fiyatlama Modeli İle Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimleri Enstitüsü.TALLA, Joseph Tagne (2013), Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market Prices of the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Master’s thesis in International Financial Analysis, Jönköping International Business School.TARI, Recep (2010), Ekonometri, 11. Baskı, Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.ZÜGÜL, Muhittin. and Cumhur SAHIN, (2009), “An Application to Examine the Relationship between IMKB 100 Index and Some Macroeconomic Variables.” Akademik Bakış, 16, 1-16.