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Journals / Black Sea Journal of Agriculture / 2026 / Cilt: 9 Sayı: 3

Heterogeneous Impacts of Climate Change on Fruit Production: Evidence from Türkiye Using Panel Data Analysis

Mehmet Özcanlı(HARRAN ÜNİVERSİTESİ, FEN-EDEBİYAT FAKÜLTESİ)0000-0003-2228-8298
Pages
431–448
Publication Date
2026-05-15
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The research suggests that agricultural areas in Türkiye should be used in a more conscious and sustainable way and that a faster transition to an intensive agricultural system should be made, where climate conditions are less effective and modern agricultural methods are applied, as in developed countries.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The effects of global climate change in our country have begun to be felt in many economic and social sectors.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The discussions on plant production, food security, and access to them, which are a part of the agricultural sector, have started to increase in our country as in other countries.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:The research suggests that agricultural areas in Türkiye should be used in a more conscious and sustainable way and that a faster transition to an intensive agricultural system should be made, where climate conditions are less effective and modern agricultural methods are applied, as in developed countries.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2004 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Global climate change · Fruit production · Agricultural geography

Abstract

The effects of global climate change in our country have begun to be felt in many economic and social sectors. The sector that is most sensitive to climate is the agricultural sector. The discussions on plant production, food security, and access to them, which are a part of the agricultural sector, have started to increase in our country as in other countries. Agricultural production in Türkiye is still under the influence of climatic conditions compared to developed countries. A change in climate elements continues to directly affect agricultural production. Climate change research generally states that the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and North Africa, including Türkiye, are the regions most affected by climate change. This study investigates the effect of global climate change on fruit production in Türkiye. The data source of the study is the production of 63 fruits obtained from TURKSTAT between 2004 and 2024 and the annual averages of temperature and precipitation taken from Meteorology between the same years. These data were analysed using the panel fixed effects method in the Python 3.12 program and statistically significant and insignificant results were obtained. As a result of the study, it was determined that 5 fruit species (Orange Washington, Portal Yafa, Tangerine, Blueberry and Carob) showed a significant change due to the increase in temperature, 10 fruit species (Avocado, Fig (Fresh), Apple (Starking), Other Apples, Nectarine, Plum, Blueberry, Almond, Carob, Pomegranate) were significantly affected by precipitation, some fruit species increased yields up to a certain temperature and their yields started to decrease after the limit temperature was exceeded, some fruits did not establish a significant relationship with temperature and precipitation, and some of them decreased their yields due to the decrease in precipitation as the temperature increased. In general, it has been determined that the changes in temperature and precipitation in Türkiye due to global climate change have affected the yield obtained per decare positively in some products and negatively in others. The research suggests that agricultural areas in Türkiye should be used in a more conscious and sustainable way and that a faster transition to an intensive agricultural system should be made, where climate conditions are less effective and modern agricultural methods are applied, as in developed countries.

Özet

The effects of global climate change in our country have begun to be felt in many economic and social sectors. The sector that is most sensitive to climate is the agricultural sector. The discussions on plant production, food security, and access to them, which are a part of the agricultural sector, have started to increase in our country as in other countries. Agricultural production in Türkiye is still under the influence of climatic conditions compared to developed countries. A change in climate elements continues to directly affect agricultural production. Climate change research generally states that the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and North Africa, including Türkiye, are the regions most affected by climate change. This study investigates the effect of global climate change on fruit production in Türkiye. The data source of the study is the production of 63 fruits obtained from TURKSTAT between 2004 and 2024 and the annual averages of temperature and precipitation taken from Meteorology between the same years. These data were analysed using the panel fixed effects method in the Python 3.12 program and statistically significant and insignificant results were obtained. As a result of the study, it was determined that 5 fruit species (Orange Washington, Portal Yafa, Tangerine, Blueberry and Carob) showed a significant change due to the increase in temperature, 10 fruit species (Avocado, Fig (Fresh), Apple (Starking), Other Apples, Nectarine, Plum, Blueberry, Almond, Carob, Pomegranate) were significantly affected by precipitation, some fruit species increased yields up to a certain temperature and their yields started to decrease after the limit temperature was exceeded, some fruits did not establish a significant relationship with temperature and precipitation, and some of them decreased their yields due to the decrease in precipitation as the temperature increased. In general, it has been determined that the changes in temperature and precipitation in Türkiye due to global climate change have affected the yield obtained per decare positively in some products and negatively in others. The research suggests that agricultural areas in Türkiye should be used in a more conscious and sustainable way and that a faster transition to an intensive agricultural system should be made, where climate conditions are less effective and modern agricultural methods are applied, as in developed countries.

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Cite This Article

Özcanlı, M. (2026). Heterogeneous Impacts of Climate Change on Fruit Production: Evidence from Türkiye Using Panel Data Analysis. Black Sea Journal of Agriculture, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 3, 431–448. https://doi.org/10.47115/bsagriculture.1860873

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