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Journals / Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi / 2026 / Sayı: 12

Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework

Türkiye’nin kâğıt tüketiminde yapısal ayrışma: ARDL ve ECM çerçevesinden kategoriye özgü bulgular

Hakan Aydoğan(KASTAMONU UNIVERSITY)0000-0001-9482-9888
Pages
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Publication Date
2026-06-23
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Strengthening domestic collection, sorting, and recycling capacity was concluded to be essential for a more resilient paper economy.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

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Objective & Hypothesis:Background and Aims: This study examined the long-run evolution of paper consumption in Türkiye over 2000–2024 by distinguishing printing and writing papers from recovered paper.
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Key Findings & Data:Results: Printing and writing paper consumption rose to about 1.25 million tonnes in the mid-2010s and then declined to about 0.87 million tonnes in 2024; over the same period, domestic production coverage fell from 0.53 to 0.29, while import dependence increased from 0.48 to 0.79.
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Conclusion & Impact:Strengthening domestic collection, sorting, and recycling capacity was concluded to be essential for a more resilient paper economy.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2000–2024 Verileri
⚙️Variables:ARDL · ECM · ithalat bağımlılığı

Abstract

Background and Aims: This study examined the long-run evolution of paper consumption in Türkiye over 2000–2024 by distinguishing printing and writing papers from recovered paper. Methods: Annual data from FAOSTAT, the World Bank, and UN Comtrade were used to construct category-specific apparent-consumption series, and descriptive analysis, ADF, KPSS, Zivot–Andrews tests, ARDL bounds testing, and ECM estimation were applied. Results: Printing and writing paper consumption rose to about 1.25 million tonnes in the mid-2010s and then declined to about 0.87 million tonnes in 2024; over the same period, domestic production coverage fell from 0.53 to 0.29, while import dependence increased from 0.48 to 0.79. Recovered paper consumption increased from about 0.94 to 4.21 million tonnes, but its domestic production coverage weakened to 0.64 and import dependence rose to 0.37 by 2024. Cointegration was supported only for printing and writing papers; in the preferred model, the bounds F-statistic was 6.323 and the error-correction coefficient was -0.978 (p=0.001). Conclusion: Paper consumption in Türkiye did not operate as a single integrated market; instead, it followed category-specific demand paths and supply structures. Strengthening domestic collection, sorting, and recycling capacity was concluded to be essential for a more resilient paper economy.

Özet

Giriş ve Hedefler Bu çalışma, 2000–2024 döneminde Türkiye’deki kağıt tüketiminin uzun dönemli gelişimini, yazı-baskı kağıtları ile geri kazanılmış kağıtları birbirinden ayırarak incelemektedir. Yöntemler FAOSTAT, World Bank ve UN Comtrade yıllık verileri kullanılarak kategori bazlı görünür tüketim serileri oluşturulmuş; tanımlayıcı çözümleme, ADF, KPSS ve Zivot–Andrews birim kök testleri ile ARDL sınır testi ve hata düzeltme modeli uygulanmıştır. Bulgular Yazı ve baskı kağıdı tüketimi 2010’lu yılların ortasında yaklaşık 1,25 milyon tona ulaşmış, ancak 2024 yılına gelindiğinde 0,87 milyon tona gerilemiştir. Aynı dönemde yerli üretimin tüketimi karşılama oranı 0,53’ten 0,29’a düşerken, ithalat bağımlılığı 0,48’den 0,79’a yükselmiştir. Geri kazanılmış kağıt tüketimi ise yaklaşık 0,94 milyon tondan 4,21 milyon tona çıkmış; buna karşın yerli üretim karşılama oranı 0,64’e zayıflamış ve ithalat bağımlılığı 2024 itibarıyla 0,37’ye ulaşmıştır. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisi yalnızca yazı ve baskı kağıtları için doğrulanmıştır; tercih edilen modelde sınır F-istatistiği 6,323, hata düzeltme katsayısı ise -0,978 (p=0,001) olarak hesaplanmıştır. Sonuçlar Türkiye’deki kâğıt tüketiminin tek ve bütünleşik bir pazar yapısında olmadığı, bunun yerine kategoriye özgü talep patikaları ve arz yapıları izlediği tespit edilmiştir. Daha dirençli bir kâğıt ekonomisi inşa edebilmek için yerli toplama, ayrıştırma ve geri dönüşüm kapasitesinin güçlendirilmesinin elzem olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

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Cite This Article

Aydoğan, H. (2026). Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi, Sayı: 12. https://doi.org/10.53516/ajfr.1938877

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