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Journals / Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 33 Sayı: 3

An Econometric Analysis of the Financial and Economic Determinants of the Shadow Economy

Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Finansal ve Ekonomik Belirleyicilerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Ali Budak(Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Bolvadin Uygulamalı Bilimler Fakültesi)0009-0008-2334-6537
Kenan İlarslan(Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Bolvadin uygulamalı Bilimler Fakültesi)0000-0002-5097-7552
Pages
491–512
Publication Date
2026-09-21
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the results obtained from the study, financial development and the rule of law have a decreasing effect on the shadow economy, whereas GDP per capita has an increasing effect, and these effects are statistically significant at all quantile levels.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The shadow economy, which can be defined as unreported and unrecorded economic activities that occur outside of official economic activities, has become a part of the economic activities of both developed and developing countries.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In the study covering the period 2000-2021, analyses were conducted using the MM-QREG panel quantile regression estimator.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:According to the results obtained from the study, financial development and the rule of law have a decreasing effect on the shadow economy, whereas GDP per capita has an increasing effect, and these effects are statistically significant at all quantile levels.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2000-2021 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi · Finansal Gelişmişlik · Panel Kantil Regresyon Analizi

Abstract

The shadow economy, which can be defined as unreported and unrecorded economic activities that occur outside of official economic activities, has become a part of the economic activities of both developed and developing countries. The aim of this study is to obtain empirical evidence of the effects of financial development, GDP per capita, and the rule of law on the shadow economy from the perspective of Balkan countries. In the study covering the period 2000-2021, analyses were conducted using the MM-QREG panel quantile regression estimator. According to the results obtained from the study, financial development and the rule of law have a decreasing effect on the shadow economy, whereas GDP per capita has an increasing effect, and these effects are statistically significant at all quantile levels. Key Words: Shadow Economy, Financial Development, Panel Quantile Regression Analysis. JEL Classification: E26, O16, K42

Özet

Resmi olarak yapılan ekonomik faaliyetlerin dışında gerçekleşen, bildirilmeyen ve kaydedilmeyen ekonomik faaliyetler olarak tanımlanabilen kayıt dışı ekonomi hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ekonomik faaliyetlerinin bir parçası haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Balkan ülkeleri penceresinden finansal gelişmişlik, kişi başına düşen milli gelir ve hukukun üstünlüğünün kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerine yönelik ampirik kanıtlara ulaşmaktır. 2000-2021 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada, MM-QREG panel kantil regresyon tahmincisi ile analizler yapılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde finansal gelişmişlik ve hukukun üstünlüğü azaltıcı yönde, buna karşın kişi başına düşen milli gelir ise artırıcı yönde bir etkiye sahiptir ve bu etkiler tüm kantil seviyelerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi, Finansal Gelişmişlik, Panel Kantil Regresyon Analizi JEL Sınıflandırması: E26, O16, K42

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Cite This Article

Budak, A., İlarslan, K., *, A. B. (2026). An Econometric Analysis of the Financial and Economic Determinants of the Shadow Economy. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, Cilt: 33 Sayı: 3, 491–512. https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.1706750

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