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Journals / Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi / 2015 / Cilt: 16 - Sayı: 2

THE INFLATIONARY EFFECT of THE INCREASES in CRUDE OIL PRICES: STRUCTURAL BREAKS DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS for SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES

HAM PETROL FİYAT ARTIŞLARININ ENFLASYONİST ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ İÇİN YAPISAL KIRILMALI DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ1

Mehmet MERCAN
OSMAN PEKER
İsmet GÖÇER
Pages
123–137
DOI
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

As a result of the analysis it was found that there was a cointegration relationship between the series.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In this study the effects of crude oil import prices on inflation were analysed between 1960-2011 for the oil importing selected 15 OECD countries.
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Key Findings & Data:The economic growth variable which is considered to be the descriptor of inflation was also included in the model.
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Conclusion & Impact:As a result of the analysis it was found that there was a cointegration relationship between the series.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2011 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

In this study the effects of crude oil import prices on inflation were analysed between 1960-2011 for the oil importing selected 15 OECD countries. The economic growth variable which is considered to be the descriptor of inflation was also included in the model. Panel unit root and cointegration tests considering the hypothesis that a macroeconomic shock happening in a country would affect the others, i.e. the cross sectional dependency were implemented in the analysis. As a result of the analysis it was found that there was a cointegration relationship between the series. The results of cointegration analysis showed that crude oil import prices and economic growth increased the inflation, and the inflationary effect of economic growth was higher than that of crude oil import prices.

Özet

Bu çalışmada; petrol ithalatçısı olan OECD üyesi seçilmiş 15 ülke için, 19602011 döneminde ham petrol ithal fiyatlarının enflasyon üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Analizde, herhangi bir ülkede meydana gelen bir makroekonomik şokun diğer ülkeleri de etkileyeceği varsayımını yani yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan panel birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testleri uygulanmış, seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Uzun Dönem Eşbütünleşme Katsayıları Tahmin sonuçlarına göre ham petrol ithal fiyat artışları ve ekonomik büyümenin enflasyonu arttırdığı, ekonomik büyümenin enflasyonist etkisinin, ham petrol ithal fiyatlarının etkisinden daha fazla olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.

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Cite This Article

MERCAN, M., PEKER, O., GÖÇER, İ. (2015). THE INFLATIONARY EFFECT of THE INCREASES in CRUDE OIL PRICES: STRUCTURAL BREAKS DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS for SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, Cilt: 16 - Sayı: 2, 123–137. https://ajindex.com/articles/127399

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