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Journals / Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 17 Sayı: 33

DOES THE EXCHANGE RATE-TRADE NEXUS VARY ACROSS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES?

DÖVİZ KURU-TİCARET İLİŞKİSİ İMALAT SANAYİ SEKTÖRLERİ ARASINDA DEĞİŞİYOR MU?

Saharnaz Damirova0000-0002-4682-8159
Duygu Yolcu Karadam(PAMUKKALE ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-3139-2003
Pages
411–440
Publication Date
2026-06-28
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The gravity model estimation results indicate that real exchange rate (RER) depreciations increase total manufacturing exports.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines how bilateral trade responses of manufacturing industries to exchange rate (ER) movements differ across sectors and over time.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The gravity model estimation results indicate that real exchange rate (RER) depreciations increase total manufacturing exports.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Sub-period analyses show that the results for the 1990-2005 period are consistent with conventional trade channel, whereas the ER-trade relationship weakens or reverses in many sectors during the 2006-2021 period.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2005 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Döviz kuru · imalat sanayi ticareti · yerçekimi modeli

Abstract

This study examines how bilateral trade responses of manufacturing industries to exchange rate (ER) movements differ across sectors and over time. To this end, we estimate the impact of both ER levels and uncertainty on manufacturing industry exports employing an industry level analysis. The gravity model estimation results indicate that real exchange rate (RER) depreciations increase total manufacturing exports. However, the direction and magnitude of these effects vary substantially across sectors and over time. The effects of RER depreciations become statistically insignificant or even reverse in technology-intensive sectors and in sectors with high foreign value-added content in exports. Our findings reveal that ER volatility negatively affects exports in most of the manufacturing industries. Sub-period analyses show that the results for the 1990-2005 period are consistent with conventional trade channel, whereas the ER-trade relationship weakens or reverses in many sectors during the 2006-2021 period.

Özet

Bu çalışma, imalat sanayi sektörel ihracatının döviz kuru hareketlerine karşı verdiği tepkilerin sektörler arasında ve zaman içinde nasıl farklılaştığını incelemektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada sektörel düzeyde veriler kullanılarak döviz kuru seviyeleri ve oynaklığındaki değişimlerin imalat sanayi ihracatı üzerindeki etkileri tahmin edilmiştir. Çekim modeli tahmin sonuçları, yerli paranın reel değer kayıplarının toplam imalat ihracatını artırdığını göstermektedir. Ancak bu etkilerin yönü ve büyüklüğü sektörler arasında ve zaman içinde değişmektedir. Reel döviz kuru değer kayıplarının etkileri, teknoloji yoğun ve ihracatta yüksek yabancı katma değer içeren sektörlerde istatiksel olarak anlamsız hale gelmekte veya tersine dönmektedir. Elde edilen buldular döviz kuru oynaklığının çoğu sektörde ihracatı olumsuz etkilediğini göstermiştir. Alt dönem analizleri, 1990-2005 dönemi bulgularının geleneksel ticaret kanalı ile uyumlu olduğunu, 2006-2021 döneminde ise döviz kuru-dış ticaret ilişkisinin zayıfladığını veya tersine döndüğünü göstermektedir.

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Cite This Article

Damirova, S., Karadam, D. Y. (2026). DOES THE EXCHANGE RATE-TRADE NEXUS VARY ACROSS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES?. Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 33, 411–440. https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2026.019

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