SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Türk Coğrafya Dergisi / 2026 / Sayı: 89

Climatology, Trends, and Atmospheric Environmental Controls of Thunderstorm Days in Türkiye Based on 24-Hour METAR Observations (2005–2025)

Türkiye’de 24 Saatlik METAR Gözlemlerine Dayalı Oraj Günlerinin Klimatolojisi, Eğilimleri ve Atmosferik Çevresel Kontrolleri (2005–2025)

Ferhat Keserci(ARDAHAN ÜNİVERSİTESİ, ARDAHAN İNSANİ BİLİMLER VE EDEBİYAT FAKÜLTESİ)0000-0002-8653-6177
Muhammed Başpınar(Meteoroloji Ardahan İl Müdürlüğü)0009-0000-9457-7641
Pages
161–183
Publication Date
2026-06-30
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Results show that Türkiye does not exhibit a single thunderstorm regime.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:his study examines the climatology, trends, and atmospheric environmental controls of thunderstorm days (TSDs) in Türkiye during 2005–2025 using 23 METAR stations with continuous 24-hour observations.
📊
Key Findings & Data:Trends were assessed with the Hamed-Rao modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope, with false discovery rate correction and homogeneity tests used to evaluate robustness.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:Results show that Türkiye does not exhibit a single thunderstorm regime.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2005–2025 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Oraj günü · METAR · Türkiye

Abstract

his study examines the climatology, trends, and atmospheric environmental controls of thunderstorm days (TSDs) in Türkiye during 2005–2025 using 23 METAR stations with continuous 24-hour observations. TSD series derived from hourly reports were analysed at monthly, seasonal, annual, and diurnal scales. Trends were assessed with the Hamed-Rao modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope, with false discovery rate correction and homogeneity tests used to evaluate robustness. Relationships between TSD and environmental variables from ERA5 and ERA5-Land were examined using Spearman correlation and multiple regression. Results show that Türkiye does not exhibit a single thunderstorm regime. Inland and high-elevation stations are characterized by a late- spring to early-summer maximum, whereas parts of the southern and southwestern coasts experience a longer convective season extending into the cold half of the year. Thunderstorm observations are predominantly daytime events nationally, but nighttime activity is relatively more important at coastal stations. Trend results are spatially heterogeneous; after multiple-testing correction, only the annual increase at Ankara remains statistically robust. Environmental analyses indicate that the K-index and convective precipitation explain interannual TSD variability more consistently than CAPE, while surface warming alone does not account for observed changes. Overall, the study provides a statistically cautious framework for understanding thunderstorm climatology in Türkiye.

Özet

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 24 saatlik sürekli rasat yapan 23 METAR istasyonuna dayanarak 2005–2025 dönemindeki oraj günü (TSD) klimatolojisini, eğilimlerini ve atmosferik çevresel denetleyicilerini incelemektedir. Saatlik raporlardan türetilen TSD serileri aylık, mevsimlik, yıllık ve gün içi ölçeklerde analiz edilmiştir. Eğilimler Hamed–Rao modifiye Mann–Kendall testi ve Sen eğimi ile değerlendirilmiş; sonuçların sağlamlığı yanlış keşif oranı düzeltmesi ve homojenlik testleriyle sınanmıştır. TSD ile ERA5 ve ERA5-Land’dan türetilen çevresel değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler Spearman korelasyonu ve çoklu regresyon ile incelenmiştir. Bulgular, Türkiye’de tek tip bir oraj rejimi bulunmadığını göstermektedir. İç ve yüksek sahalarda oraj aktivitesi ilkbahar sonu-yaz başında yoğunlaşırken, güney ve güneybatı kıyılarının bazı kesimlerinde konvektif sezon soğuk yarıyıla uzamaktadır. Oraj gözlemleri ülke genelinde çoğunlukla gündüz gerçekleşmekte, ancak kıyı istasyonlarında gece etkinliği görece daha fazla önem kazanmaktadır. Eğilimler mekânsal olarak heterojendir; çoklu test düzeltmesi sonrasında yıllık ölçekte yalnızca Ankara’daki artış istatistiksel olarak dayanıklı kalmıştır. Çevresel analizler, yıllar arası TSD değişkenliğini açıklamada K-indeksi ile konvektif yağışın CAPE’den daha tutarlı olduğunu, buna karşılık yüzey ısınmasının tek başına gözlenen değişimleri açıklamadığını göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak çalışma, Türkiye’de oraj klimatolojisini yorumlamak için istatistiksel açıdan temkinli ve veri temelli bir çerçeve sunmaktadır.

🔖

Cite This Article

Keserci, F., Başpınar, M., *, F. K. (2026). Climatology, Trends, and Atmospheric Environmental Controls of Thunderstorm Days in Türkiye Based on 24-Hour METAR Observations (2005–2025). Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, Sayı: 89, 161–183. https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1929043

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (49)

  1. Alexandersson, H. (1986). A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of Climatology, 6(6), 661– 675. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370060607
  2. Başpınar, M., & Yavuz, V. (2024). İstanbul için sıcak ve soğuk sezon orajlarının analizi. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, 10(1), 89–102. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1331804
  3. Benjamini, Y., & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: A practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 57(1), 289–300. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02031.x https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.06.028
  4. Changnon, S. A. (2001). Assessment of the quality of thunderstorm data at first-order stations. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 40(4), 783–794. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- 0450(2001)040 2.0.CO;2
  5. Christian, H. J., Blakeslee, R. J., Boccippio, D. J., Boeck, W. L., Buechler, D. E., Driscoll, K. T., Goodman, S. J., Hall, J.
  6. M., Koshak, W. J., Mach, D. M., & Stewart, M. F. (2003). Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the Optical Transient Detector. Journal of Geophysical Atmospheres, 108(D1), https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002347 Research: 4005. Brooks,
  7. H. E. (2013). Severe thunderstorms and climate change. Atmospheric Research, 123, 129–138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002
  8. Conover, W. J. (1999). Practical nonparametric statistics (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
  9. Çiçek, İ., Türkoğlu, N., Demirörs, Z., Gözet, E., Ateş Yılmaz, B., & Alan, İ. (2025). Temporal and spatial analysis of lightning density in Türkiye. Időjárás — Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, 129(1), 15–37.
  10. Diffenbaugh, N. S., Scherer, M., & Trapp, R. J. (2013). Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(41), 16361–16366. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1307758110
  11. Doswell, C. A., III, & Rasmussen, E. N. (1994). The effect of neglecting the virtual temperature correction on CAPE calculations. Weather and Forecasting, 9(4), 625–629.
  12. Galanaki, E., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., Flaounas, E., & Argiriou, A. (2018). Thunderstorm climatology in the Mediterranean using cloud-to-ground lightning observations. Atmospheric Research, 207, 136–144. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.03.004
  13. George, J. J. (1960). Weather forecasting for aeronautics. Academic Press.
  14. Hamed, K. H., & Rao, A. R. (1998). A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204(1–4), 182–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X
  15. Harrell, F. E., Jr. (2015). Regression modeling strategies (2nd ed.). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319- 19425-7
  16. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2021). Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (V. Masson-Delmotte et al., Eds.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896
  17. Iowa State University. (2026). ASOS-AWOS-METAR data download. Iowa Environmental Mesonet. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/download.phtml
  18. Kahraman, A., & Markowski, P. M. (2014). Tornado climatology of Turkey. Monthly Weather Review, 142(6), 2345– 2352. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00364.1
  19. Kahraman, A., Kadioglu, M., & Markowski, P. M. (2017). Severe convective storm environments in Turkey. Monthly Weather Review, 145(12), 4711–4725. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0338.1
  20. Kahraman, A., Tilev-Tanrıöver, Ş., Kadioglu, M., Schultz, D. M., & Markowski, P. M. (2016). Severe hail climatology of
  21. Brooks, H. E., Anderson, A. R., Riemann, K., Ebbers, I., & Flachs, H. (2007). Climatological aspects of convective parameters from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. Atmospheric Research, 83(2–4), 294–305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.08.005
  22. Brooks, H. E., Lee, J. W., & Craven, J. P. (2003). The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data. Atmospheric Research, 67–68, 73–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00045-0
  23. Buishand, T. A. (1982). Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. Journal of Hydrology, 58(1–2), 11–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022- 1694(82)90066-X
  24. Cecil, D. J., Buechler, D. E., & Blakeslee, R. J. (2014). Gridded lightning climatology from TRMM-LIS and OTD: Dataset description. Atmospheric Research, 135–136, 404–414. Turkey. Monthly Weather Review, 144(1), 337–346. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0337.1
  25. Kim, S. (2015). ppcor: An R package for a fast calculation to semi-partial correlation coefficients. Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods, 22(6), 665– 674. https://doi.org/10.5351/CSAM.2015.22.6.665
  26. Kotroni, V., & Lagouvardos, K. (2008). Lightning occurrence in relation with elevation, terrain slope, and vegetation cover in the Mediterranean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113(D21). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010605
  27. Lelieveld, J., Hadjinicolaou, P., Kostopoulou, E., Chenoweth, J., El Maayar, M., Giannakopoulos, C., Hannides, C., Lange, M. A., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., & Xoplaki, E. (2012). Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Climatic Change, 114(3), 667–687. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584- 012- 0418-4
  28. Miller, R. C. (1972). Notes on analysis and severe storm forecasting procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central (Technical Report 200, Rev.). Air Weather Service.
  29. O’Brien, R. M. (2007). A caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors. Quality & Quantity, 41(5), 673–690. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-006-9018-6
  30. Özdemir, E. T., Deniz, A., Sezen, İ., Aslan, Z., & Yavuz, V. (2017). Investigation of thunderstorms over Ataturk International Airport (LTBA), Istanbul. Mausam, 68(1), 175–180. https://doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v68i1.448
  31. Petrova, S., Mitzeva, R., Kotroni, V., & Peneva, E. (2024). Seasonal–diurnal distribution of lightning over Bulgaria and the Black Sea and its relationship with sea surface temperature. Atmosphere, 15(10), 1233. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15101233
  32. Pettitt, A. N. (1979). A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Applied Statistics, 28(2), 126– 135. https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729
  33. Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Rädler, A. T., Tijssen, L., Nikulin, G., Prein, A. F., van Meijgaard, E., Fealy, R., Jacob, D., &
  34. Sausen, R. (2017). Future changes in European severe convection environments in a regional climate model ensemble. Journal of Climate, 30(17), 6771–6794. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0777.1
  35. Romps, D. M., Seeley, J. T., Vollaro, D., & Molinari, J. (2014). Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming. Science, 346(6211), 851–854. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259100
  36. Seeley, J. T., & Romps, D. M. (2015). The effect of global warming on severe thunderstorms in the United States. Journal of Climate, 28(6), 2443–2458. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00382.1
  37. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Brooks, H. E., Pilguj, N., & Czernecki, B. (2021). Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(2), E296–E322. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0004.1
  38. Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Czernecki, B., Kolendowicz, L., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., & Schulz, W. (2019). A climatology of thunderstorms across Europe from a synthesis of multiple data sources. Journal of Climate, 32(6), 1813–1837. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0372.1
  39. Taszarek, M., Brooks, H. E., Czernecki, B., Szuster, P., & Fortuniak, K. (2018). Climatological aspects of convective parameters over Europe. Journal of Climate, 31(11), 4281–4308. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0596.1
  40. Tilev-Tanrıöver, Ş., Kahraman, A., Kadioglu, M., & Schultz, D. M. (2015). Lightning fatalities and injuries in Turkey. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15(8), 1881–1888. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1881- 2015
  41. Trapp, R. J., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Brooks, H. E., Baldwin, M. E., Robinson, E. D., & Pal, J. S. (2007). Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(50), 19719–19723. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705494104
  42. Türkeş, M., & Erlat, E. (2003). Precipitation changes and variability in Turkey linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation during the period 1930–2000. International Journal of Climatology, 23(14), 1771–1796. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.962
  43. Türkeş, M., & Erlat, E. (2005). Climatological responses of winter precipitation in Turkey to variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the period 1930– 2001. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 81(1–2), 45–69. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-004-0084-1
  44. Türkeş, M., & Erlat, E. (2008). Influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the variability of winter mean temperatures in Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 92(1–2), 75–85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0310-8
  45. Wijngaard, J. B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., & Können, G. P. (2003). Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology, 23(6), 679–692. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.906
  46. World Meteorological Organization. (2019). Manual on codes: Volume I.1, international codes, Part A Alphanumeric codes (WMO No. 306)
  47. Yavuz, V. (2024). Performance analyzes of thermodynamic indices and atmospheric parameters in thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days in Istanbul, Turkey. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 181, 2297–2316. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-024-03521-0
  48. Yavuz, V., Deniz, A., Özdemir, E. T., Karan, H., & Temiz, C. (2022). Long-term thunderstorm analysis at airports in the Marmara Region: Types and favourable atmospheric conditions. International Journal of Global Warming, 28(1), 81–95. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2022.125083
  49. Zittis, G., Almazroui, M., Alpert, P., Ciais, P., Cramer, W., Dahdal, Y., Fnais, M., Francis, D., Hadjinicolaou, P., Howari, F., Jrrar, A., Kaskaoutis, D. G., Kulmala, M., Lazoglou, G., Mihalopoulos, N., Lin, X., Rudich, Y., Sciare, J., Stenchikov, G.,. Lelieveld, J. (2022). Climate change and weather extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. Reviews of Geophysics, 60(3), e2021RG000762. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021RG000762