AI Summary & Key Takeaways
AI InsightThis situation highlights the need to strengthen reserve funds, develop contingent loans and parametric insurance, and instituonalise risk layering strategies in line with international recommendations.
📌 3 Key Takeaways
Abstract
Natural disasters not only cause physical destruction and human losses, but also threaten macroeconomic balances by reducing budget revenues, increasing public expenditure and the debt burden. International organisations (UN, OECD, World Bank, IMF) recommend that risks in disaster financial management be integrated into budget processes and reported transparently. In this context, disaster financing strategies rely on the balanced use of ex-ante (pre-disaster) financial buffers (reserve funds, contingent appropriations, insurance and catastrophe bonds) and ex-post (post-disaster) instruments (borrowing, additional taxes, foreign aid). Turkey’s practices following the earthquakes of 6 February 2023 have been a limited reflection of this theoretical framework. Large-scale resources were transferred from the central budget, and additional taxes and external loans were brought into pay. However, as the scope of compulsory earthquake insurance is narrow, a large portion of the cost was borne by the public budget, increasing the debt stock and budget deficit. Consequently, although Turkey has been successful in mobilizing short-term resources after disasters, it remains vulnerable in terms of long-term fiscal sustainability due to the inadequacy of ex-ante buffers and the limitations of risk transfer mechanisms. This situation highlights the need to strengthen reserve funds, develop contingent loans and parametric insurance, and instituonalise risk layering strategies in line with international recommendations.