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Journals / Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi / 2026 / Sayı: 74

EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON THE EXISTENCE OF SPECULATIVE BUBBLES IN THE BORSA ISTANBUL IPO INDEX

BORSA İSTANBUL HALKA ARZ ENDEKSİNDE SPEKÜLATİF BALONLARIN VARLIĞINA DAİR AMPİRİK KANITLAR

Arif Sezgin(BALIKESİR ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-3381-6458
Sinan Aytekin(BALIKESİR ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-1502-2643
Pages
16–27
Publication Date
2026-05-04
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The study found that price bubbles existed in the BIST IPO index during multiple periods.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:In financial markets, price bubbles in various assets and investment instruments have frequently been observed throughout history, and they can create effects that may lead to crises both during their formation and in the aftermath.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In this regard, the scope of the series analysis consists of weekly observations between April 27, 2010, the date of the first calculation of the IPO index, and December 31, 2024.
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Conclusion & Impact:The study found that price bubbles existed in the BIST IPO index during multiple periods.
🔬Design:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Scope:2010 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Halka arz endeksi · Spekülatif balonlar · GSADF testi

Abstract

In financial markets, price bubbles in various assets and investment instruments have frequently been observed throughout history, and they can create effects that may lead to crises both during their formation and in the aftermath. Furthermore, the risks created by price movements observed during price bubble periods are of great importance for individual and institutional investors in terms of portfolio management. The aim of this study is to investigate whether a price bubble has formed in the BIST IPO index, which consists of companies that have publicly offered their shares on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. In this regard, the scope of the series analysis consists of weekly observations between April 27, 2010, the date of the first calculation of the IPO index, and December 31, 2024. The Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test was applied as the method in the study, even when multiple bubbles were present during the analysis period. The study found that price bubbles existed in the BIST IPO index during multiple periods.

Özet

Finansal piyasalarda çeşitli varlık ve yatırım araçlarında tarih boyunca sıkça gözlemlenen fiyat balonları, ortaya çıktıkları dönemde ve sonrasında krizlere varabilen etkiler yaratabilmektedir. Ayrıca, fiyat balonu dönemlerinde görülen fiyat hareketlerinin oluşturduğu riskler bireysel ve kurumsal yatırımcıların portföy yönetim süreci açısından büyük öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı paylarını Borsa İstanbul’da halka arz eden firmalardan oluşan BIST Halka Arz endeksinde fiyat balonu oluşup oluşmadığını araştırmaktır. Bu doğrultuda, halka arz endeksinin ilk hesaplanma tarihi olan 27.04.2010 ile 31.12.2024 tarihleri arasındaki haftalık gözlemlerden oluşan seri analizin kapsamını oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmada yöntem olarak analiz döneminde birden fazla balon olması durumunda da kullanılan Genelleştirilmiş Eküs ADF (GSADF-Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller) testi uygulanmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda BIST Halka Arz endeksinde birden fazla dönemde fiyat balonu varlığı tespit edilmiştir.

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Cite This Article

Sezgin, A., Aytekin, S. (2026). EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON THE EXISTENCE OF SPECULATIVE BUBBLES IN THE BORSA ISTANBUL IPO INDEX. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Sayı: 74, 16–27. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.1795523

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