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Journals / Türkiye Jeoloji Bülteni / 2026 / Cilt: 69 Sayı: 2

Re-Assessment of Seismic Risk Associated with the Furthest East of the Düzce-Kaynaşlı Segment of the North Anatolian Fault (Türkiye) Utilising Data Derived From 12 November 1999 Earthquake in the Bolu Basin (NW Anatolia)

Kuzey Anadolu Fayı Düzce-Kaynaşlı Segmentinin Doğusunda Sismik Riskin Yeniden Değerlendirilmesi; 12 Kasım 1999 Depreminde Bolu Havzasında (KB Anadolu) Gözlenen Etkiler

Yaşar Ergun Gökten(ANKARA ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-2119-1593
Pages
273–278
Publication Date
2026-04-28
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

In this area, increasing earthquake risk is indicated by the development of a series of tensional gashes in the north of the Bolu Basin and an M=4.8 earthquake that occurred in this region on 16 March 2023.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:During the 17 August 1999 Marmara earthquake in Türkiye, the surface rupture became indistinct north of Aydınpınar village in the southeast of Düzce Basin at the eastern end of the rupture.
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Key Findings & Data:The surface rupture of the 17 August 1999 earthquake propagated towards the west, but it also propagated towards the east reaching the southeast of Düzce Basin.
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Conclusion & Impact:In this area, increasing earthquake risk is indicated by the development of a series of tensional gashes in the north of the Bolu Basin and an M=4.8 earthquake that occurred in this region on 16 March 2023.
🔬Design:Kısa Bildiri
📍Scope:2023 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Bolu Havzası · Kuzey Anadolu Fayı · 1999 Depremleri

Abstract

During the 17 August 1999 Marmara earthquake in Türkiye, the surface rupture became indistinct north of Aydınpınar village in the southeast of Düzce Basin at the eastern end of the rupture. The surface rupture of the 17 August 1999 earthquake propagated towards the west, but it also propagated towards the east reaching the southeast of Düzce Basin. Thus fault propagation after 17 August developed towards the east to cause the later Düzce-Kaynaşlı earthquake on 12 November 1999 where the surface rupture propagated reaching Asarsuyu valley in Kaynaşlı county. Although an İstanbul earthquake is expected in the near future, we aim to draw attention to the segment in the furthest east of this zone. In this area, increasing earthquake risk is indicated by the development of a series of tensional gashes in the north of the Bolu Basin and an M=4.8 earthquake that occurred in this region on 16 March 2023.

Özet

17 Ağustos 1999 Marmara depreminde meydana gelen yüzey kırığının doğudaki ucu Düzce havzasının güneydoğusunda Aydınpınar köy yolunun kuzeyinde belirsiz hale gelmişti. 17 Ağustos Adapazarı-Gölcük depreminin yüzey kırığı batıya ilerlerken doğuya doğru Düzce ovasının güneydoğusuna kadar da ilerlemişti. Doğuya ilerleyen yüzey kırığı 12 Kasım 1999 da Düzce –Kaynaşlı depremine yol açmış ve yüzey kırığı Kaynaşlı ilçesini geçerek Asarsuyu vadisine kadar ilerlemişti. Her ne kadar yakın gelecekte bir İstanbul depremi beklenmekteyse de yer bilimcilerin dikkatini bu yüzey kırığının daha doğusunda artan deprem tehlikesine çekmek istemekteyiz. Bu tehlike söz konusu deprem sırasında Bolu havzasının kuzeydoğusunda beliren bir seri tansiyon çatlağı ile ve 16.03.2023 tarihinde bu noktada meydana gelen M=4.8 depremi ile kendini belirtmiştir.

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Cite This Article

Gökten, Y. E. (2026). Re-Assessment of Seismic Risk Associated with the Furthest East of the Düzce-Kaynaşlı Segment of the North Anatolian Fault (Türkiye) Utilising Data Derived From 12 November 1999 Earthquake in the Bolu Basin (NW Anatolia). Türkiye Jeoloji Bülteni, Cilt: 69 Sayı: 2, 273–278. https://doi.org/10.25288/tjb.1818690

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