SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi / 2024 / Cilt: 24 Sayı: 4

Terrorist Events and Foreign Direct Investment: Outcomes Unveiled by Robust Statistical Models in the Example of Greece

Terör Olayları ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım: Yunanistan Örneğinde Dayanıklı İlişkisel Modellerin Ortaya Çıkardığı Sonuçlar

Mahir Terzi(T.C. Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığı)0000-0003-1308-2060
Serkan Yenal(MİLLİ SAVUNMA ÜNİVERSİTESİ, KARA HARP OKULU)0000-0002-8188-5095
Pages
1675–1704
Publication Date
2024-12-23
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The results show a medium correlation between terrorist attacks and foreign direct investment, which is statistically significant.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines whether the terrorist attacks impact foreign direct investments to Greece, with as much up-to-date data as possible.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In this framework, hypotheses are tested within the framework of relational models through the data between 1970 and 2020.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:The results show a medium correlation between terrorist attacks and foreign direct investment, which is statistically significant.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2020 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım · Yunanistan · İlişkisel Modeller

Abstract

This study examines whether the terrorist attacks impact foreign direct investments to Greece, with as much up-to-date data as possible. In this framework, hypotheses are tested within the framework of relational models through the data between 1970 and 2020. The results show a medium correlation between terrorist attacks and foreign direct investment, which is statistically significant. There is also a slightly higher correlation between terrorist attacks and foreign direct investment as a parameter of gross domestic product, which is statistically significant. Moreover, as the robust regression analysis shows, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between the variables. However, with complete data, there appears to be a causality tendency between variables by increasing foreign direct investment in the short term. At the same time, the results reveal causality from foreign direct investment to terrorist attacks.

Özet

Bu çalışma, terör saldırılarının Yunanistan'a yapılan doğrudan yabancı yatırımları etkileyip etkilemediğini mümkün olan en güncel verilerle incelemektedir. Bu çerçevede 1970-2020 yılları arasındaki veriler üzerinden hipotezler, ilişkisel modeller çerçevesinde test edilmektedir. Sonuçlar terör saldırıları ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı orta düzeyde bir korelasyon olduğunu göstermektedir. Gayri safi yurt içi hasıla parametresi olarak terör saldırıları ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olan biraz daha yüksek bir korelasyon vardır. Ayrıca, dayanıklı regresyon analizinin gösterdiği gibi değişkenler arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Ancak tam verilerle kısa vadede terör saldırılarından doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara doğru, doğrudan yabancı yatırımları artırmak suretiyle bir nedensellik eğilimi olduğu görülmektedir. Aynı zamanda doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardan terör saldırılarına doğru nedensellik söz konusudur.

🔖

Cite This Article

Terzi, M., Yenal, S. (2024). Terrorist Events and Foreign Direct Investment: Outcomes Unveiled by Robust Statistical Models in the Example of Greece. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 4, 1675–1704. https://doi.org/10.18037/ausbd.1517832

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (41)

  1. Ak, Z. and Inal, V. (2017). Türkiye’de terör ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım: Saklı eşbütünleşme ve asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisi. Bilgi, 35, 27-43. Accessed: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/453951
  2. Akbulut, O. (2022). Current approaches in reporting statistical significance in scientific research: Errors and truths. International Journal of Eastern Mediterranean Agricultural Research, 5, 1-19. Retrieved form https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2176560
  3. Ari, Y. O. and Ibrahim, B. (2021). The impact of terrorism on foreign direct investment: The case of Turkey. Third Sector Social Economic Review, 56(3), 1781-1797. http://dx.doi.org/10.15659/3.sektor-sosyal-ekonomi.21.09.1598
  4. Bank of Greece. (n.d.). Assessing the impact of terrorism on travel activity in Greece. Economic Research Department. Accessed: https://www.bankofgreece.gr/Publications/Paper2011127.pdf
  5. Ceyhan, V. and Gunduz, O. (2023). Vector autoregression models. Retrieved from https://avys.omu.edu.tr/storage/app/public/vceyhan/109840/VAR.pdf
  6. Durucasu, H. (2019). Regression and correlation analysis. In E. Sıklar & A. Ozdemir (Eds.), Statistics II (pp. 117-137). Eskisehir: Anadolu University Press.
  7. Enders, W. and Sandler, T. (1996). Terrorism and foreign direct investment in Spain and Greece. Kyklos, 49, 331-352. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.1996.tb01400.x
  8. Eviews. (2023). Robust regression in EViews 8. Retrieved from https://eviews.com/EViews8/ev8ecrobust_n.html
  9. Goldman, O. S. Neubauer-Shani, M. (2016). Does international terrorism affect transnational tourism? Journal of Travel Research, 56(4), 451-467. https://doi.org/10.1177/00472875166490
  10. Guris, S., Guris, B. and Akan, E. C. (2017). Eviews ile temel ekonometri. Istanbul: Der Yayinlari.
  11. Huber, P. J. (1973). Robust regression: Asymptotics, conjectures and Monte Carlo. The Annals of Statistics, 1(5), 799-821. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2958283
  12. Karl, M., Winder, G. and Bauer, A. (2016). Terrorism and tourism in Israel: Analysis of the temporal scale. Tourism Economics, 23(6), 1343-1352. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816616686
  13. Karyotis, G. (2007). Securitization of Greek terrorism and arrest of the Revolutionary Organization November 17. Cooperation and Conflict, 42(3), 271-293. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/45084485
  14. Kassimeris, G. (1995). Greece: Twenty years of political terrorism. Terrorism and Political Violence, 7(2), 74-92. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546559508427300
  15. Korotayev, A., Vaskin, I. and Tsirel, S. (2019). Economic growth, education, and terrorism: A re-analysis. Terrorism and Political Violence, 33(3), 572-595. https://doi.org/10.1177/10693971241245862
  16. Krajňák, T. (2020). The effects of terrorism on tourism demand: A systematic review. Tourism Economics, 27(8), 1736-1758. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620938900
  17. Leslie, D. (1999). Terrorism and tourism: The Northern Ireland situation—A look behind the veil of certainty. Journal of Travel Research, 38(1), 37-40. https://doi.org/10.1177/00472875990380010
  18. Li, Q. (2006). Political violence and foreign direct investment. In M. Fratianni (Ed.), Regional economic integration (pp. 225-249). Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  19. Liargovas, P. and Repousis, S. (2010). The impact of terrorism on Greek banks' stocks: An event study. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 51, 87-96. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228383266_The_impact_of_terrorism_on_Greek_Banks'_Stocks_an_event_study
  20. Meierrieks, D. and Gries, T. (2013). Causality between terrorism and economic growth. Journal of Peace Research, 50(1), 91-104. Retrieved from https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:joupea:v:50:y:2013:i:1:p:91-104
  21. Ondokuz Mayis University. (2023). Zaman serilerinde temel kavramlar. Retrieved from https://avys.omu.edu.tr/storage/app/public/vceyhan/109842/ZAMAN%20SER%C4%B0LER%C4%B0NDE%20TEMEL%20KAVRAMLAR.pdf
  22. Osgood, I. and Simonelli, C. (2020). Nowhere to go: FDI, terror, and market-specific assets. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 64(9), 1-28. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/48631684
  23. Pizam, A. and Smith, G. (2000). Tourism and terrorism: A quantitative analysis of major terrorist acts and their impact on tourism destinations. Tourism Economics, 6(2), 123-138. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000000101297523
  24. Radić, M. N. (2018). Terrorism as a determinant of attracting FDI in tourism: Panel analysis. Sustainability, 10(4553), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10124553
  25. Rasheed, H. Tahir, M. (2012). FDI and terrorism: Co-integration & Granger causality. International Affairs and Global Strategy, 4, 1-5. Retrieved from https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/234670459.pdf
  26. Rousseeuw, P. and Yohai, V. J. (1984). Robust regression by means of S estimators. In J. Franke, W. Härdle, & D. Martin (Eds.), Robust and nonlinear time series analysis (pp. 256-272). Berlin: Springer. Retrieved from https://wis.kuleuven.be/stat/robust/papers/publications-1984/rousseeuwyohai-robustregressionbysestimators-1984.pdf
  27. Samitas, A., Asteriou, D., Polyzos, S. and Kenourgios, D. (2018). Terrorist incidents and tourism demand: Evidence from Greece. Tourism Management Perspective, 25, 23-28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2017.11.002
  28. Shah, S. H., Hasnat, H. and Ahmad, M. H. (2016). The effects of the human cost of terror on national income, private consumption and investment in Pakistan: An empirical analysis. South Asia Economic Journal, 17(2), 216-235. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/soueco/v17y2016i2p216-235.html
  29. Terzi, M. (2024). Terrorist incidents and foreign direct investment: Results uncovered by relational models in the cases of Colombia and Peru. Latin American Economic Review, 3, 1-27. Retrieved from https://www.latinaer.org/index.php/laer/article/view/315/92
  30. Terzi, M. and Yenal, S. (2019). Terrorism. In N. Dogan (Ed.), International security (pp. 159-186). Eskisehir: Anadolu University Press. Retrieved from https://ets.anadolu.edu.tr/storage/nfs/HUK226U/ebook/HUK226U-19V1S1-8-0-1-SV1-ebook. pdf
  31. Tez Yardim Platformu. (2022, December 24). Testing the normal distribution with SPSS. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cekTDfqvWE
  32. Tez Yardim Platformu. (2022, December 23). Simple linear regression analysis with SPSS. Retrieved from YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAAN73QF9e8
  33. Tez Yardim Platformu. (2022, December 20). Binary (simple) correlation analysis with SPSS and writing findings. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95n9WtdoUR8
  34. Thompson, A. (2011). Terrorism and tourism in developed versus developing countries. Tourism Economics, 17(3), 693-700. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2011.00
  35. Turanli, M. and Guris, S. (2018). Temel istatistik. Istanbul: Der Yayinlari.
  36. University of Maryland. (2023). Terrorist incidents by country: (Greece). Retrieved from https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?country=78
  37. Walters, G., Wallin, A. and Hartley, N. (2018). The threat of terrorism and tourist choice behavior. Journal of Travel Research, 58(3), 370-382. https://doi.org/10.1177/00472875187555
  38. World Bank. (2023). Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP) – Greece. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS?locations=GR
  39. Yenal, S. (2020). Radikallesme-Koktencilik Baglaminda Teror ve Terorizm. In H. Acar & S. Yenal (Eds.), Siyasal siddet ve radikallesme baglaminda terror orgutleri (pp. 21-43). Ankara: Nobel Yayınevi.
  40. Yenal, S. and Begenirbas, M. (2019). Evaluation of terrorism in Latin American countries with changing terrorism concept. Science Journal of Turkish Military Academy, 29(2), 203-227. Yohai, V. J. (1987). High breakdown-point and high efficiency robust estimates for regression. The Annals of Statistics, 15(2), 642-656. doi: 10.1214/aos/1176350366
  41. Yenal, S. and Begenirbas, M. (2019). Evaluation of terrorism in Latin American countries with changing terrorism concept. Science Journal of Turkish Military Academy, 29(2), 203-227.