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Dergiler / Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 33 Sayı: 3

Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Finansal ve Ekonomik Belirleyicilerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

An Econometric Analysis of the Financial and Economic Determinants of the Shadow Economy

Ali Budak, Kenan İlarslan

Sayfa
491–512
Yayın Tarihi
2026-09-21
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Özet

Resmi olarak yapılan ekonomik faaliyetlerin dışında gerçekleşen, bildirilmeyen ve kaydedilmeyen ekonomik faaliyetler olarak tanımlanabilen kayıt dışı ekonomi hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerin ekonomik faaliyetlerinin bir parçası haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Balkan ülkeleri penceresinden finansal gelişmişlik, kişi başına düşen milli gelir ve hukukun üstünlüğünün kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerine yönelik ampirik kanıtlara ulaşmaktır. 2000-2021 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada, MM-QREG panel kantil regresyon tahmincisi ile analizler yapılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde finansal gelişmişlik ve hukukun üstünlüğü azaltıcı yönde, buna karşın kişi başına düşen milli gelir ise artırıcı yönde bir etkiye sahiptir ve bu etkiler tüm kantil seviyelerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi, Finansal Gelişmişlik, Panel Kantil Regresyon Analizi JEL Sınıflandırması: E26, O16, K42

Abstract

The shadow economy, which can be defined as unreported and unrecorded economic activities that occur outside of official economic activities, has become a part of the economic activities of both developed and developing countries. The aim of this study is to obtain empirical evidence of the effects of financial development, GDP per capita, and the rule of law on the shadow economy from the perspective of Balkan countries. In the study covering the period 2000-2021, analyses were conducted using the MM-QREG panel quantile regression estimator. According to the results obtained from the study, financial development and the rule of law have a decreasing effect on the shadow economy, whereas GDP per capita has an increasing effect, and these effects are statistically significant at all quantile levels. Key Words: Shadow Economy, Financial Development, Panel Quantile Regression Analysis. JEL Classification: E26, O16, K42

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Budak, A., İlarslan, K. (2026). Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Finansal ve Ekonomik Belirleyicilerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 33 Sayı: 3, 491–512. https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.1706750

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