Dergiler / İşletme Bilimi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 14 Sayı: 3

Stock Market Reactions to Major World Bank Loan Announcements: Evidence from Türkiye

Sayfa
658–669
Yayın Tarihi
2026-09-25
🏛️Bu makalenin bibliyografik verileri ve tam metin bağlantısı DergiPark üzerinden sağlanmıştır.
DergiPark Kaydı ↗

Abstract

This study examines the stock market effects of World Bank loans by focusing on the two largest World Bank financing packages approved for Türkiye between 2013 and 2023. The study evaluates their impact on the BIST 100 index, as well as the BIST Financial index and its sub-indices. Using the Event Study methodology, it investigates both short- and long-term market reactions to loan announcements. The findings indicate that World Bank loan announcements generate positive and statistically significant effects on the BIST 100 index in the long term, while producing predominantly negative and statistically significant abnormal returns in the BIST Financial index and its sub-sectors. These findings provide new empirical evidence that announcements of large-scale World Bank financing are priced differently across sectors of the Turkish stock market, highlighting the importance of sectoral dynamics in shaping market reactions to external financing.

Anahtar kelimeler
🔖

Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Daştan, E., Çalı, M. S. (2026). Stock Market Reactions to Major World Bank Loan Announcements: Evidence from Türkiye. İşletme Bilimi Dergisi, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 3, 658–669. https://doi.org/10.22139/jobs.1795857

📄 Tam Metin PDF Okuyucu

↗Yeni Sekme

PDF belgesi yükleniyor...

Kaynakça (28)

  1. Azeem, M., Ahmad, N., Hussain, S., Khurshid, M., & Majid, S. (2021). Impact of IMF lending announcements on the performance of stock market: Empirical evidence from Pakistan. Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, 9(3), 467-476. https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2021.9348
  2. Boockmann, B., & Dreher, A. (2003). The contribution of the IMF and the World Bank to economic freedom. European Journal of Political Economy, 19(3), 633-649. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0176-2680(03)00016-8
  3. Brealey, R. A., & Kaplanis, E. (2004). The impact of IMF programs on asset values. Journal of International Money and Finance, 23(2), 253-270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2003.12.003
  4. Butkiewicz, J. L., & Yanikkaya, H. (2005). The effects of IMF and World Bank lending on long-run economic growth: An empirical analysis. World Development, 33(3), 371-391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.09.006
  5. Cull, R., & Effron, L. (2008). World Bank lending and financial sector development. The World Bank Economic Review, 22(2), 315-343. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhn004
  6. Çelik, M. S., & Koç, R. (2019). Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki uçak krizinin Borsa İstanbul (BIST) turizm ve enerji şirket hisselerine etkisi üzerine bir event study analizi. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(1), 1-15. https://izlik.org/JA37FU67UE
  7. De Jong, F. (2007). Event studies methodology [Lecture notes]. Tilburg University. https://www.academia.edu/35248600/Event_Studies_Methodology
  8. Demiroglu, T., & Karagoz, M. (2016). IMF stabilization programs and their effects on the world economic crises. Procedia Economics and Finance, 38, 396-407. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30211-8
  9. Dogan, B. (2025). Examining the financial effects of boycotting Israel: Event-study and modern portfolio theory approaches with data from Borsa Istanbul. Borsa Istanbul Review, 25(5), 1026-1037. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2025.06.002
  10. Dreher, A. (2006). IMF and economic growth: The effects of programs, loans, and compliance with conditionality. World Development, 34(5), 769-788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.11.002
  11. Easterly, W. (2001). The effect of IMF and World Bank programmes on poverty (WIDER Discussion Paper No. 2001/102). United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER). https://hdl.handle.net/10419/52956
  12. Evrensel, A. Y., & Kutan, A. M. (2007). IMF-related announcements and stock market returns: Evidence from financial and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 15(1), 80-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2006.04.001
  13. Hayo, B., & Kutan, A. M. (2005). IMF-related news and emerging financial markets. Journal of International Money and Finance, 24(7), 1126-1142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2005.08.007
  14. Hutchison, M. M. (2003). A cure worse than the disease? Currency crises and the output costs of IMF-supported stabilization programs. In M. P. Dooley & J. A. Frankel (Eds.), Managing currency crises in emerging markets (pp. 321–360). University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226155425.003.0011
  15. Investing.com. (n.d.). BIST 100, BIST Financials, financial sub-indices, and MSCI Türkiye Index historical data [Data set]. Retrieved September 10, 2025, from https://www.investing.com
  16. Kersting, E., & Kilby, C. (2024). How do stock markets in emerging economies respond to World Bank loan approvals? Emerging Markets Review, 63, 101207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101207
  17. Kilby, C. (2013). An empirical assessment of informal influence in the World Bank. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 61(2), 431-464. https://doi.org/10.1086/668278
  18. Kothari, S. P., & Warner, J. B. (2007). Econometrics of event studies. In B. E. Eckbo (Ed.), Handbook of empirical corporate finance (Vol. 1, pp. 3–36). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53265-7.50015-9
  19. MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). Event studies in economics and finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13-39.
  20. Moser, C., & Sturm, J. E. (2011). Explaining IMF lending decisions after the Cold War. The Review of International Organizations, 6(3), 307-340. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-011-9120-y
  21. Pacicco, F., Vena, L., & Venegoni, A. (2018). Event study estimations using Stata: The Estudy command. The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata, 18(2), 461-476. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1801800211
  22. Przeworski, A., & Vreeland, J. R. (2000). The effect of IMF programs on economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 62(2), 385-421. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(00)00090-0
  23. StataCorp. (2021). Stata statistical software: Release 17. StataCorp LLC.
  24. Woon, W. S. (2004). Introduction to the event study methodology [Unpublished manuscript]. Singapore Management University. https://www.academia.edu/6861454/Introduction_to_the_Event_Study_Methodology
  25. World Bank. (2012). Getting to know the World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/808861468156889120/pdf/344260REVISED0101OFFICIAL0USE0ONLY1.pdf
  26. World Bank. (2013, June 6). Turkey - Competitiveness and Savings Development Policy Operation.
  27. World Bank. (2018, May 22). Turkey Inclusive Access to Finance Project.
  28. World Bank. (2023). World Bank annual report 2023: A new era in development. World Bank. from https://documents.worldbank.org/pt/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099092823161580577