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Orman yangınlarına hızlı müdahale için kaynak tahsisi: Balıkesir örneği

Resource allocation for rapid response to forest fires: the Balıkesir example

Tamer Eren, Burcu Tezcan

Sayfa
1216–1226
Yayın Tarihi
2026-10-08
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Özet

Orman yangınları, doğal ekosistemlerin sürdürülebilirliği için büyük bir tehdit oluşturarak ciddi çevresel ve ekonomik kayıplara yol açmaktadır. Etkili bir yangınla mücadele, kaynakların stratejik ve optimize edilmiş şekilde tahsis edilmesini gerektirir. Bu çalışma, yoğun orman örtüsü, artan yaz sıcaklıkları, kuraklık eğilimi ve yangın yayılımını hızlandıran dönemsel kuvvetli rüzgârlar nedeniyle yüksek riskli bir bölge olarak tanımlanan Balıkesir ili Kepsut ilçesine odaklanmaktadır. Tarihsel orman yangını verileri kullanılarak, yüksek risk koşullarında kaynakların hızlı bir şekilde yangın bölgelerine dağıtımını simüle eden üç ve altı yangın senaryolu modeller geliştirilmiştir. Modelleme sürecinde IBM ILOG CPLEX optimizasyon yazılımı kullanılmıştır. Senaryo 1’de, toplam 28 adet yangın söndürme ekipmanı üç yangın bölgesine dağıtılmış; bunlardan iki bölgeye, daha yüksek risk düzeyleri ve hızlı yayılma potansiyelleri nedeniyle daha yoğun tahsis yapılmıştır. Senaryo 2’de ise 46 ekipman altı bölgeye dağıtılmış, 2. ve 5. bölgeler kritik önemleri nedeniyle önceliklendirilmiştir. Sonuçlar, önerilen modelin kaynak kullanımında denge ve verimliliği birlikte sağladığını ve farklı yangın senaryolarına etkin bir şekilde uyum gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Modelin performansı, gerçek operasyonel koşullarla yüksek uyum göstermekte ve zamanında, veriye dayalı karar almayı desteklemektedir. Bu nedenle, model Kepsut (Balıkesir) gibi yangına yatkın bölgelerde afet yönetimi ve politika yapıcılar için etkili bir karar destek aracı olarak önemli bir potansiyele sahiptir.

Abstract

The nature of natural ecologies is threatened by forest fires, which cause significant ecological and economic damages. In firefighting, resources need to be strategically and optimized in their allocation. This research concentrates on the Kepsut district of Balıkesir province, which is a forest area at risk of forest fires in terms of dense forest vegetation, increased summer temperatures, drought characteristics, and periodic strong winds that enhance the spread of forest fires. On the basis of past forest fire data, three- and six-fire scenario models were created for fast resource allocation in a high-risk area situation. Optimization using IBM ILOG CPLEX software was performed to decide on the allocation of firefighting resources for firefighting efforts. In scenario 1, a total of 28 pieces of equipment were placed in three zones of a forest area, with a higher concentration in two zones based on their higher risk values and increased potential rate of spread. In scenario 2, a total of 46 pieces of equipment were placed in six zones of a forest area, giving higher importance to zones 2 and 5 as points of highest importance. It is clear that our findings show that the proposed approach guarantees balanced and efficient resource allocation, and it is adjust well to different fire situations. Since the degree of alignment of our approach with practical fire operation is very good, it can definitely be considered a correct and efficient tool for informed decision-making. Hence, it can definitely be used as a correct and efficient tool for informed decision-making.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Eren, T., Tezcan, B. (2026). Orman yangınlarına hızlı müdahale için kaynak tahsisi: Balıkesir örneği. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 6, 1216–1226. https://doi.org/10.65206/pajes.30232

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