Dergiler / Reforma / 2019 / Sayı: 83
CHALLENGES OF APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL METHODS TO FORECAST DEMAND OF ENERGY SOURCES AND OPTIMIZATION OF THE ENERGY BALANCE OF THE KYRGYZ ENERGY SYSTEM
- Dergi
- Reforma
- Sayı
- 2019 · Sayı: 83
- Sayfa
- 22–28
- DOI
- —
Özet
Energy consumption forecasting is a multi-step and multi-level process, the results of which can be used in the formation of a rational strategy for the development of the energy sector of the whole country and its individual subjects. The reliability of energy management measures, energy savings and cost-effective operation of the entire power system depend on the reliability of the forecasts. The article presents the current trends in the use of mathematical methods and tools for forecasting the development of the fuel and energy industries. In addition, the results of the forecast of the need for electricity in the Kyrgyz Republic for the period up to 2040 using the economic-mathematical model are presented. Since the forecasting conditions have changed with the transition to market relations to optimize the energy balance it is required to use software. The experience of optimizing the energy balance in other countries and the use of existing models in the energy sector is of great interest for the Kyrgyz energy system.
Abstract
Energy consumption forecasting is a multi-step and multi-level process, the results of which can be used in the formation of a rational strategy for the development of the energy sector of the whole country and its individual subjects. The reliability of energy management measures, energy savings and cost-effective operation of the entire power system depend on the reliability of the forecasts. The article presents the current trends in the use of mathematical methods and tools for forecasting the development of the fuel and energy industries. In addition, the results of the forecast of the need for electricity in the Kyrgyz Republic for the period up to 2040 using the economic-mathematical model are presented. Since the forecasting conditions have changed with the transition to market relations to optimize the energy balance it is required to use software. The experience of optimizing the energy balance in other countries and the use of existing models in the energy sector is of great interest for the Kyrgyz energy system.