Determination of Meteorological Forest Fire Risks in Mediterranean Climate of Turkey

Abstract

Abstract: Located in the Mediterranean climate zone, Turkey is one of the countries where hundreds of forest fires occur every year. Especially the West Taurus is one of the most affected areas. Some fires occur naturally due to the climatic facts. The fires occurring due to negligence or intent also expand their domain largely in the control of climate elements. Therefore, it is of great importance to determine the natural fire risk of the region depending on the climatic factors. In this study, to determine the natural fire risk , the Keetch-Byram Drought Index was used and The Inverse Distance Weighting method was applied to the index results by using the Arc GIS software. Also in our study, the results obtained with the Keetch-Byram Drought Index were compared on a monthly level with the number of fires occurred in 2011 in the same area. Both the accuracy of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index and also distribution of natural fire risk areas in the Western Taurus were determined. According to the findings, during the period from July to November, when drought increases, the values increased based on meteorological conditions. It can be concluded that the risk is particularly high in late summer months (August and September).