A Method for Determination of Accident Probability in the Construction Industry

Abstract

Safety issues within the construction industry have been an area of concern in almost everycountry. In this paper, an objective and quantitative accident probability calculation approachis proposed using 623 actual construction accidents that resulted in 681 casualties betweenthe years 2000 and 2013. Of these accidents, the first five account for 84.1% of all fatalitiesand 85.4% of all injuries. In total, five construction jobs (excavation, reinforced concretework, masonry, plastering and painting, and roof work) were the focus of the study, as theyaccount for 70.8% of all occurrences. Probability values were calculated by using the Poissondistribution, in which accident rates and exposure values were used as distributionparameters. In an industry where accidents are recorded according to non-specific standards,it is very difficult to represent the probability of accidents within a known distribution model.The proposed approach in this paper provides an objective method to obtain probabilities byusing the Poisson distribution for construction accidents.