Correlation of Trends in the Incidence of Selected Infectious Diseases with Healthcare Expenditures: An Ecological Study

Abstract

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Although progress has been made in the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases, they continue to represent global public health problems, leading to the deaths of millions of people. This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between the trends in the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), syphilis, tuberculosis and Hepatitis B and the changes in health expenditure between 2007 and 2016 in Northern Cyprus. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The incidences of particular infectious diseases over time were examined using the serial measure method. The area under the curve (AUC) line was calculated to determine the frequency of infectious disease occurrence. P-values less than 0.05 were accepted as significant. RESULTS: The AUC value for Hepatitis B was the highest, followed by syphilis, tuberculosis and AIDS (AUC=2482.50 for Hepatitis B, AUC=149.07 for syphilis, AUC=99.66 for tuberculosis and AUC= 72.82 for AIDS). There was a significant reduction in the incidence of tuberculosis and syphilis during the study period (r= -0.702; F=7.792; p=0.024 for tuberculosis) and (r= -0.663; F=6.263; p=0.037 for syphilis). There was a statistically significant negative correlation between the trends in health expenditure and tuberculosis (r= -0.829; F=11.404; p=0.010; r2=0.588) and syphilis (r= -0.755; F=10,583; p=0.012; r2 =0.467). CONCLUSION: The reducing trend in the incidence of tuberculosis and syphilis corresponding to in-creasing health expenditure suggests the need for health policies to sufficiently fund preventive measures against infectious diseases, particularly hepatitis B.