INVESTIGATION OF THE DEPENDENCE STRUCTURE IN SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION FOR TURKEY

Abstract

n this study, using the earthquake occurrence data (Richter magnitude is equal to 4 or greater than 4 in the years 1901-2014) of the areaslimited by 39:5 42 N latitudes and 26 45 E longitudes of North Anatolia and 36 39:5 N latitudes and 26 31 E longitudes of West Anatolia,it is aimed to model the dependence structure of Semi-Markov model via conditional copulas in which the copula is parametric and its parameter varies asthe covariate, based on the assumption that the successive earthquakes in thesame structural discontinuity should not be independent events and the occurrence of the earthquakes should be ináuenced by the elapsed time betweenthem. From the results obtained for these regions with high seismicity, it isseen that the variation in the strength of dependence between the time elapsedfrom the previous seismic event and the magnitude of the next seismic eventat di§erent magnitudes of previous seismic event is highly signiÖcant and a usage of the parametric linear form in the copula parameter will be adequately characteriz.