Dergiler / Reforma / 2022 / Sayı: 93
THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON KYRGYZ ECONOMY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
- Dergi
- Reforma
- Sayı
- 2022 · Sayı: 93
- Sayfa
- 23–34
- DOI
- —
Özet
The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of inflation in the Kyrgyz economy on macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, foreign trade, money supply and loans by commercial banks. The empirical analysis used quarterly data for the time period 2001-2020. The relationships between variables have been analyzed via using the vector autoregression (VAR) model, the Granger causality test, and the ARDL cointegration method. According to the results of the Granger causality test, the consumer price index has a unilateral effect on the exchange rate, and the volume of banking loans in the national currency. It is illustrated that there is a bilateral causality relationship between the inflation and the volume of imports, M2 money supply, food imports.
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of inflation in the Kyrgyz economy on macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, foreign trade, money supply and loans by commercial banks. The empirical analysis used quarterly data for the time period 2001-2020. The relationships between variables have been analyzed via using the vector autoregression (VAR) model, the Granger causality test, and the ARDL cointegration method. According to the results of the Granger causality test, the consumer price index has a unilateral effect on the exchange rate, and the volume of banking loans in the national currency. It is illustrated that there is a bilateral causality relationship between the inflation and the volume of imports, M2 money supply, food imports.