INVESTIGATING WITH THE VAR ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN IMPORT, EXPORT, EXCHANGE RATE, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BUDGET DEFICITS IN KAZAHSTAN

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the causal relationship between economic growth, budget deficit, monetary base, exchange rate, import and export of Kazakhstan. In the analysis we used quarterly time series in 2005:1 – 2014:3 years. The data was obtained from the official site of the National Bank and the Statistical Committee of the Ministry of Economy of Kazakhstan. Temporary data have been investigated by means of an econometric model VAR (vector autoregression model). To test the stationarity of the time series was used ADF unit root test. VAR analysis results showed unilateral causal relationship between the export, economic growth and exchange rate in Kazakhstan