AA Markov Chain Modelling Of The Earthquakes Occuring In Turkey

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to estimate seismic risk by Markov chain for Turkey, located between the longitudes of and the latitudes of , using the earthquake data from the year 1901 to 2006. For this purpose, the most possible transition matrix was found by the maximum entropy principle and then the earthquakes in Turkey were tried to predict. Also, in a simulation study it was tested whether the prediction model is correct and some first passage time distributions are geometric. Besides, it was observed that for the earthquakes having magnitude and the time interval year, the method yielded an 81,1% aftcast success rate for the entire catalog. Keywords: Goal programming, Kuhn-Tucker Method, nonlinear cost function, stratified random sampling.