Revisiting super-cycles in commodity prices

Abstract

It is argued that business cycles have been moderating. However, there are a limited number of studies inthe literature analyzing the cyclical behaviour of commodity prices in the last decades. This paper attempts toŞll this gap by investigating the super-cycles in oil prices. In addition, interdependence between cycles in GDP and oil prices and co-movements between cycles in oil and other commodity pricesare investigated. Results show that super-cycles in oil prices still exist and are not moderating. The lastpeak in long-term oil price was observed in 2012 and since then it has been on a downward trend.© 2016 Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an openaccess article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)