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Journals / Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 28 Sayı: 1

The role of climate policies in mitigating the effects of global warming: The Robit model

Küresel ısınmanın etkilerini azaltmada iklim politikalarının rolü: Robit modeli

Ebru Çağlayan Akay, Zeynep Şengül

Pages
204–219
Publication Date
2026-06-19
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Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate policies implemented by countries on global warming using binary qualitative choice models, in line with the United Nations’ 13th Goal: Climate Action, announced in 2015, and the signing of the Paris Agreement. Considering the Paris Agreement’s goal of slowing temperature rise and keeping it below 2°C, the dependent variable is defined as whether the average temperature increase exceeds or does not exceed 2°C. The model is estimated using the logit, probit, and robust probability regression method, robit. Based on model selection metrics, the robit estimation method demonstrates the best model performance. According to the results of the robit regression, natural resource rent reduces the probability of temperature increase, while climate risk, carbon emission intensity, and income group increase the likelihood of temperature rise. When climate risk is evaluated in relation to countries’ success in implementing climate policies, it appears to have the potential to reduce temperature levels. Additionally, when carbon emissions are evaluated in the context of carbon taxation, the probability of global warming increases, but this increase is smaller compared to carbon emissions alone. This result indicates that imposing a carbon tax can reduce the intensity of global warming compared to carbon emission release. The findings suggest that climate policies can provide long-term environmental and economic benefits and that, rather than being a burden, such policies can slow the pace of global warming when implemented consistently and effectively. In conclusion, sustainable and stable climate policies are projected to yield significant environmental gains.

Özet

Bu çalışma, Birleşmiş Milletler’in 2015 yılında ilan etmiş olduğu hedeflerden 13. Hedef: İklim Eylemi ve Paris Anlaşması’nın imzalanması sebebiyle ülkelerin uyguladığı iklim politikalarının küresel ısınma üzerindeki etkisini iki kategorili nitel tercih modelleriyle incelemektedir. Çalışmada, Paris Anlaşması’nın sıcaklık artışını yavaşlatmak ve 2°C altında tutma hedefini dikkate alarak; bağımlı değişken, ortalama sıcaklık artışının 2°C ve üzerini aşması ve aşmaması olarak belirlenmiştir. Model logit, probit ve dayanıklı olasılık regresyon yöntemi robit ile tahmin edilmiştir. Model seçim metrikleri incelendiğinde en iyi model performansını robit tahmin yöntemi sergilemektedir. Robit regresyon sonucuna göre, doğal kaynak rantının sıcaklık artış olasılığını azaltırken iklim riskinin, karbon emisyon yoğunluğunun ve gelir grubunun sıcaklık artış olasılığını arttırdığı bulunmuştur. İklim riskinin, ülkelerin iklim politikaları uygulama başarısıyla değerlendirildiğinde sıcaklığı azaltma potansiyeli olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Ayrıca, karbon emisyonları karbon vergisi uygulanmasıyla değerlendirildiğinde küresel ısınma olasılığını arttırdığı fakat bu artışın karbon emisyonuna kıyasla düşüktür. Bu sonuç, karbon vergisi alınmasının küresel ısınmanın gücünü karbon emisyonu salınıma kıyasla azaltabileceğini göstermektedir. Bulgular, iklim politikalarının uzun vadede çevresel ve ekonomik faydalar sağlayabileceğini ve politikaların bir yük değil, istikrarlı başarı sağlandığında küresel ısınma hızının yavaşlayabileceğini ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuç olarak, sürdürülebilir ve kararlı iklim politikalarının çevresel düzeyde önemli kazanımlar sağlayabileceği öngörülmektedir.

Keywords
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Cite This Article

Akay, E. Ç., Şengül, Z. (2026). The role of climate policies in mitigating the effects of global warming: The Robit model. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 1, 204–219. https://doi.org/10.33707/akuiibfd.1806312

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