An econometric analysis of electricity demand in turkey

The aim of the paper is twofold: First, to investigate the long-run economic relationship between electricity demand and income in Turkey for the period 1962-1996 using the concept of cointegration and error correction modelling. Second, to model the electricity consumption using univariate ARMA process and to make forecast for the years 1997-2010. The results indicate that electricity consumption and income are cointegrated, i.e., they tend to move together in the long run. Using error correction specification, the short- and long-run elasticities of income are estimated. The results show that income elasticity of electricity consumption is very high and electricity consumption in the future will continue to grow at higher rates.

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An econometric analysis ,

of electricity ,

demand in Turkey ,