Açik enflasyon hedeflemesi döneminde parasal aktarim mekanizmasinin döviz kuru kanali: türkiye üzerine ekonometrik bir analiz

The aim of this study is to investigate econometrically with the time series analysis whether it is effectively operating of exchange rate channel of monetary transmission in Turkey. In the study, covering the period of 2006:5-2011:5 that the explicit inflation targeting (IT) is implemented, short time interest rate, real effective exchange rate index, consumer price index (CPI) and real industrial production index variables are used. The results of error correction-augmented Granger causality analysis show that there is bi-directional causality between exchange rate with interest rate and inflation. According to the results of error correction model, exchange rate is negatively affected by short time interest rate while negatively effecting inflation. As a result, all analyses made in the study reflect that the exchange rate channel of monetary transmission in Turkey is effective on inflation.